posted August 8, 2009 at 18:00 EST in UFC / MMA Props
Prop Bets for Almeida vs. Grove at UFC 101
by Charles Jay
RICARDO ALMEIDA VS. KENDALL GROVE
BetUS Sportsbook Outcome Props
UFC Middleweights
August 8 -- Philadelphia
Fight Goes three-Round Distance
Yes +120
No -160
Kendall Grove wins inside distance
Yes +300
No -500
Kendall Grove wins by three-round decision
175 Yes +275
176 No -450
Ricardo Almeida wins inside distance
Yes +170
No -220
Ricardo Almeida wins by 3 round decision
Yes +250
No -400
I know it is sometimes an over-used cliché, but this scheduled three-rounder between Ricardo Almeida and Kendall Grove has all the makings of a "crossroads" fight. The winner may be in line for a shot at Anderson Silva's middleweight title down the line, as Silva is proving to be superior to all the competition he is facing at 185 pounds, although it has been mentioned that Almeida, with a victory, may actually move down to welterweight, where he would take aim at Georges St. Pierre. Whatever happens afterward, this is an interesting skirmish for Saturday night's show.
Grove holds a six-inch height advantage, and Almeida is not known as a striker with a lot of sting in his punches, so you know what Grove is going to be looking to do - he'd like to stand there and bounce some shots off Almeida's head. That is altogether possible, at least for a while, although most expert observers who have commented about this fight have made the observation that Almeida is going to be able to take Grove to the mat, sooner or later. When that happens, things are going to get rough for Grove. The consensus is that he is not fully equipped to handle the experience that Almeida has in that area, and that is the case in particular after Almeida has had three fights back after a four-year hiatus from MA action.
What does that mean for us in terms of the props? Well, we know that Almeida likes to choke people out if he can, but has also demonstrated that he is perfectly content with building a points victory. Six of his ten wins have come from the judges, and there is the distinct possibility that he will take the superior position and just ride Grove from there, not giving the Hawaiian any room to maneuver. Of course, there's a lot of room to cover, as Grove stands 6-foot-6, but I think that will make it incredibly difficult for him to keep this fight on his feet, since Almeida will undoubtedly be trying for the takedown from the outset.
You have to keep in mind that Almeida is a patient fighter, so he will be working not to make a mistake at the same time he is searching for that opening that will bring about a submission. Sometimes that leads to a dull fight, and one that lasts.
One thing you may want to factor into the formula here - Almeida, a native of Weehauken, NJ, has been begging to be involved in this show, because Philadelphia is more or less a stone's throw away from him. In fact, he is still fighting at middleweight BECAUSE the show is in Philadelphia, and at middle is where that opportunity was. He'll have friends, fans and family in the audience watching him, and he will be extra inspired to come up with a big win. That means something spectacular. That means a submission.
There's nothing, however, that says Grove has to cooperate with that. He's lost five times, and in four of those fights he's been knocked out with strikes. That is not a big part of Almeida's game, as we've alluded to.
I would grab two of the props here and parlay them. One of them calls for the fight to go the THREE-ROUND DISTANCE, which will give you +120 in the BetUS UFC 101 betting odds. The other is on Almeida winning over that distance, which is priced even more attractively, at +250 in the BetUS betting odds.
