Underdog Alert at UFC 100 - Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

LIVE DOG ALERT: THIAGO READY TO SURPRISE

Let’s take a look at the BetUS Sportsbook odds for UFC100:

Welterweights
JON FITCH -500
PAULO THIAGO +350

For wagering purposes, let's size up the contestants:

FITCH (19-2, 4 KO's), the -500 favorite in the BetUS UFC betting odds, originally hails from Fort Wayne, Indiana and took a degree from Purdue University, but now he trains in San Jose. He has a wrestling background, competing for Purdue in the Big Ten, and was coached by Tom Erikson, who used to fight in PRIDE. After taking some early lumps in his career, which included two losses in his first four fights, Fitch needed to broaden his repertoire, so he got involved with the American Kickboxing Academy, and began his climb up the UFC ladder when he beat Brock Larson at Ultimate Fight Night 2. He won his first eight UFC bouts, and that included a TKO over Thiago Alves (who is fighting GSP at UFC 100) on strikes. This got him a fight with Georges St. Pierre for the UFC welterweight title at UFC 87. Fitch fought gamely but lost a five-round unanimous decision in decisive fashion. Last time out, Fitch scored a decision over Akihiro Gomo at UFC 94.

THIAGO (11-0, 2 KO's), the +350 underdog at BetUS, hails from Brazil, and naturally he is a proponent of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, with some Muay Thai thrown in. He turned pro in July of 2005 in Brazil, part of Storm Samurai 8, and won on a third-round submission. He won each of his first six fights by choking out the opponent, before capturing a unanimous decision win over Leonardo Pecanha. His first ten fights were in Brazil, and he has only fought one time in UFC competition. That was at UFC 95 on February 21, and in that fight, he blasted out veteran Josh Koscheck with a right hand-left hook combination at 3:29 of the first round, winning "Knockout of the Night" honors.

This will be the first time Thiago has fought in the United States, and you can bet he got the attention of many UFC fans with that TKO of Koscheck. Since Fitch is Koscheck's teammate, he'll be getting quite a scouting report, although that won't hide the fact that Thiago brings a surprise element into this fight. He has more of the unknown upside; for example, if you looked at his fight-by-fight record, you wouldn't have thought he could go out there and bang out a UFC veteran with a striking combination. This is the kind of thing you look for in a live dog.

You also look for one thing the fighter does very, very well. In Thiago's case, it is his skills at choking out opponents. Much of what he does involves maneuvering his opponents into a position to be vulnerable to this move, and while Fitch knows that, he now knows that he's got more of an arsenal to worry about.

You also have a guy here who "doesn't know how to lose," and that may sound like a cliché, but what it means is that Thiago, having never tasted defeat, is not going to so easily accept tapping out and living to fight another day. He will refuse to lose, at least for as long as he can.