Ultimate Fighter Finale - Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

The Ultimate Fighter Finale events put on by the UFC wagering are usually all about the contestants from the show, but their season 9 event this Saturday features two of the better lightweight matchups of the year.

One of those matchups pits lanky trash talk-enthusiast Nate Diaz against Joe Stevenson in a battle of former Ultimate Fighter show contestants that love to finish fights via submission.

For Diaz, it could be anything from a triangle choke to an arm-bar and everything in between. For Stevenson, submission victories usually are earned the same way: through his famous guillotine choke.

The BetUS UFC odds have Diaz as a somewhat lukewarm -150 to +110 betting favorite, and that’s despite Stevenson coming into the fight having lost 3 of his last 4 UFC matches.

Stevenson’s boxing skills, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu game are all good, but his diminutive 5’7 height is a major problem as are his lack of punching power and lack of diversity in his jiu-jitsu finishing acumen.

Diaz will have the advantage in this contest standing up from a technical standpoint with his 6-foot height and ability to string together combinations, and he will probably try and keep Stevenson at bay with the jab all night.

Diaz is excellent on the ground as well, but in this one, his lack of strength will be exposed by the stocky Stevenson. If Diaz gets a little too cocky, he could find himself on the wrong end of a choke in this one as Stevenson begins to wear him down.

With all the motivation in the world on Stevenson’s side from his rough recent losses, expect him to come out intense and push the pace on Diaz, taking the fight to him and exploiting his lack of power.

This one could very well end in a submission, but the prediction here is that it will be Stevenson on the winning end of it via choke to cement his status as one of the top lightweights yet again