UFC Upset Alert - Guida vs. Sanchez in the TUF Finale

It’s still just under a month until the landmark UFC 100 event, but there’s still plenty of action for fans of the league this Saturday night at The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 Finale in Las Vegas.

The main event for the evening will be a lightweight bout between Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez and Clay “The Carpenter” Guida, and it could go a long way toward sorting out the next title contender in the division following the UFC 101 clash between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian in Philadelphia.

Sanchez is currently listed as a -300 to +200 betting favorite at BetUS Sportsbook, a testament to his well-rounded game, strong reputation as an Ultimate Fighter winner, and his sterling 22-2 record.

Some call Sanchez a freak, others see his perceived quirky traits (yoga, meditation, shouting out “Yes!” many times in succession before a fight with a fanatical intensity) as symbols of his commitment to winning and his positive, never-say-die attitude.

Guida is the wild man who famously disputed being labeled a “gatekeeper” in the lightweight division who desperately wants to prove he is a real-deal title contender among lightweights in the UFC. With a 25-6 record it is fair to say that his talent has been underestimated.

Sanchez has a 5’11 to 5’7 height advantage in this one, which should help him immensely while standing. Guida is a good, crisp striker and his chin is decent but he has a tendency to get tagged on counterstrikes due to his lack of height. Sanchez will get his shots in on the feet in this one if that’s the way the fight goes.

If there’s one type of fighter Sanchez has had trouble with, however, it’s been the strong wrestlers, as both Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch have beaten him.

Sanchez is a versatile fighter but he can be bullied, and since he’s not that familiar with his body as a lightweight, Guida could prove to be a handful.

Guida will need to be his usual relentless, aggressive self in this fight, and if he pushes the pace and stays on Sanchez the whole fight, he has the skills needed to control the fight and score a win.

That’s exactly what I’m predicting will happen at The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 Finale in Vegas as Guida will win a decision over Sanchez in an upset that will once again prove the doubters wrong.