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posted July 8, 2009 at 15:12 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks

UFC Main Event Pick - Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar

Bookmark and Share by Nick Meyer

Heroes are always popular in the world of sports, but when it comes to drawing power, nothing beats a good villain.

And in the world of the UFC, Brock Lesnar is a super villain on the level of Megatron from Transformers, or that silver-haired guy From All My Children (don’t ask me how I came up with that).

Lesnar loves it too, and he also loves to play up his villainous tendencies, subsequently whipping the fans up into a jealous frenzy. He’s a smart businessman from his days in the WWE in that regard and now he’s the UFC’s biggest pay-per-view draw despite having only three fights in the organization.

So when he called out UFC 100 challenger and UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir for possessing a “fake” title belt, he did it with the intent of adding to the buzz of what could be the biggest heavyweight fight in UFC history, even though it’s obviously a foolish thing to say considering that Mir beat him in their first matchup.

From the perspective of Mir, who holds a 12-3 career MMA record and has recovered well from a horrific motorcycle accident in 2004 that left him with a broken leg and tore all the ligaments in his knee, the first win was a victory of technique and experience over sheer size and strength and a feather in the cap of diehard MMA fans everywhere.

But Lesnar, who holds a 3-1 career MMA record, thought Mir got lucky, pointing to the fact that he had drilled Mir early and came close to finishing him on the ground. He says he won’t leave himself open for a kneebar again after many more months of focused jiu-jitsu training.

BetUS seems to agree with Lesnar, as it has installed Brock as a solid -240 to +190 favorite over Mir at UFC 100 for their main event clash on Saturday, July 11th.

Lesnar has the advantages over Mir in the areas of size, strength, punching power, and speed, and he will probably attempt to come out and bull-rush Mir in order to overwhelm him and turn the fight more into a brawl than a technical boxing match or a ground war.

Mir has even come out and said that he would do the same thing if he were in Lesnar’s shoes at UFC 100.

Coming off of an impressive performance against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in their last fight, Mir seems more confident in his standup game than ever before and he doesn’t think that Lesnar will be able to hang with him in a technical boxing match, nor will he be able to do much on the ground with him unless he overpowers him and gets him in a bad position.

Expect Lesnar to follow Mir’s advice and go with what got him here by bull-rushing Mir yet again. Neither fighter is foolish enough to attempt to touch gloves with the other in this one, that’s for sure.

Mir will be forced to defend an all-out onslaught from Lesnar at the beginning, and now that he’s in the best shape of his career and recovered from the motorcycle accident injuries, he should be able to stave off the initial attack and turn the fight into something more technical than, say, Lesnar’s win over Heath Herring.

Once that happens, Mir will be able to take control of the fight by out-pointing Lesnar on the feet and exploiting his many weaknesses. Or he could simply pull guard and look to work in a submission.

Lesnar might get frustrated at some point and try a takedown or two, but that could be a bad idea because Mir is one of the best in all of MMA at working from his back.

The potential definitely exists for Lesnar to blast Mir in the head like he did late in his fight against Randy Couture, putting him in a daze and enabling a ground-and-pound victory, but it seems as if Mir is too focused to let the happen to him this time around.

Mir isn’t quite as good as he looked in his win over a hobbled Nogueira, but he still has the perfect blend of skill and size to match with Lesnar and to take home the true heavyweight championship belt at UFC 100 on Saturday in what could be the most electric match of the year for fans.

In the end, Mir will slap yet another submission on Lesnar, perhaps an armbar if that is indeed humanly possible. With the win, Mir will rise to legendary status and prove that technique triumphs over brute strength, just how Royce Gracie did so many years ago .

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