posted December 27, 2008 at 15:30 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight Nogueira vs Mir
by Charles Jay
MIR HOPES TO WIN UFC'S "OTHER" HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE
Here are the BetUS UFC betting odds on the fight:
UFC Interim Heavyweight Title
December 27 – Las Vegas
ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA -350
FRANK MIR +250
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
NOGUEIRA (31-4-1, 3 KO's, 19 subs.), the -350 favorite in the BetUS UFC sports betting odds, is the twin brother of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who is also one of the best MMA fighters around. "Minotauro" turned pro in mixed martial arts in June of 1999 with a win over David Dodd and has fought a plethora of world-class contenders. One of those fights was a loss to Dan Henderson in a bid for the King of Kings title in 2000. However, he went on a 14-fight win streak after that, which included victories over Mark Coleman, Enson Inoue, Gary Goodridge, Bob Sapp, and Heath Herring, a decision where he won the first PRIDE heavyweight title. Nogueira also avenged his loss to Henderson in December of 2002, scoring a third-round submission. He's lost a couple of times to Fedor Emilianenko, once for his PRIDE heavyweight crown and another in a Grand Prix tournament. Has also beaten Ricco Rodriguez, Mirko Cro Cop, Sammy Schilt, Jeremy Horn, and Josh Barnett. He won the UFC interim heavyweight title (which the organization vacated after Randy Couture left the UFC) with a third-round guillotine choke that caused Tim Sylvia to submit. That was back on February 2, and he hasn't fought since.
MIR (11-3, 1 KO, 7 subs.), the +250 underdog at BetUS, is a native of Las Vegas with a background in wrestling. he debuted as a mixed martial arts fighter in July of 2001 with a two-round decision in the Hook-n-Shoot organization. By his third pro fight, he was in the UFC. Despite a loss to Ian Freeman at UFC 38, he was considered a fighter on the rise, and after beating Tank Abbott and Wes Sims a couple of times, he got a chance to fight Tim Sylvia for the UFC heavyweight title belt. Mir put an arm bar on Sylvia very early in the fight, and after it broke Sylvia's arm, the referee stopped the fight, at 50 second of the first round. Just three months later, Mir was involved in a motorcycle accident that broke his leg, tore up his knee, and nearly ended his career. he didn't fight again for a year and a half, and naturally his title became vacant. Upon returning to the Octagon, he suffered upset losses at the hands of Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera (both TKO's in one round) and he was more or less written off. But at UFC 81, he withstood an early onslaught from Brock Lesnar and applied a knee bar that had the former WWE champ (and current UFC heavyweight champ) submitting, just a minute and thirty seconds into the bout. That positioned Mir to fight against Nogueira, who is the "interim" champion.
The UFC, which knows how to use one event to sell another, did the build-up to this one by putting both of these guys in as coaches for Season 8 of "The Ultimate Fighter." Of course they drop the ball when they take a page from boxing an confuse people by introducing "interim" titles within their organization, but....
Regardless of the recent success of Lesnar against Randy Couture, I do value experience in this game. And that is quite a commodity when you have as much of it as Nogueira does. There isn't a thing he hasn't seen, and has had an opportunity to face at least ten of the best fighters of the era.
I watched the fight with Sylvia, who I consider to be a fair but not outstanding UFC champion. Despite having a height and reach disadvantage, I thought Nogueira did very well with his striking. It looked like he had worked on it, and had the subtleties of a jab and combinations that may not have overwhelmed someone like Sylvia, who lies to do that stuff himself, but may give him decisive edges against Mir, who is going to be much more comfortable on the ground, trying to force a submission.
When you look at Mir, he's had very little to hang his hat on between 2004 and today. He took advantage of some rookie mistakes on Lesnar's part, after which Lesnar really went to work and showed some improvement. I'm not sure at this point, having fought 90 seconds in about 16 months, that he has enough in his arsenal to take on someone like Nogueira, who is the more well-rounded fighter, with a world of experience, and enough stamina to go rounds with Mir, who may or may not be in the kind of shape he needs to be to extend this fight, I say a submission at some point in the third or fourth round for Nogueira, the -350 favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook UFC sports betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: NOGUEIRA TO WIN (-350) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
