UFC Fight Night 19 Picks - Melvin Guillard vs. Nate Diaz

UFC Fight Night 19 is the night financially troubled MMA fans the world over have been waiting for; a full-fledged, legitimate UFC card with plenty of quality fights. For free of course on Spike TV.

The main event of the Ultimate Fighter-themed evening features heavy hitter Melvin Gullard against the always-angry, often unintentionally-funny jiu-jitsu specialist Nate Diaz in a matchup that’s about as unpredictable as they come.

The task at hand for the betting community is to figure out which of these guys will bring their A game on Wednesday night and which fighter’s distinct advantages will end up paving the way to a crucial victory in Oklahoma City.

Diaz’s more diversified game, height advantage, and more high-profile recent history have him listed as a solid favorite going into the fight at -260 while the underdog, Guillard, comes in at +200.

Nate Diaz has lost two straight fights, but both of them were to excellent wrestlers in Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, who simply bullied the spindly Diaz around the cage on their way to decision wins.

Diaz has said recently that he plans to fight smarter instead of always throwing himself right into the mix, especially now that he’s in danger of falling out of favor in the UFC’s lightweight division.

But that wasn’t his problem against Guida and Stevenson, his problem was that he was outclassed physically and his wrestling wasn’t good enough to stay off the mat and out of compromising positions long enough to work his excellent submission game in.

Guillard has a similar amount of strength to Guida and Stevenson, but his strength comes mostly in the form of his ability to throw bombs.

Guillard is definitely at a crossroads in his career going into this fight as he needs to show he has become well-rounded enough to take on the better jiu-jitsu guys without being flash submitted.

He has been submitted by the likes of Rich Clementi, Stevenson, and Josh Neer and he could easily face a similar fate against Diaz at UFC Fight Night 19 unless he’s made major changes to his style.

Considering that Guillard is a UFC veteran of eight fights and hasn’t shown the kind of ground skills to deal with a jiu-jitsu star like Diaz, it seems like Guillard will have a hard time winning this time around. Diaz plans to fight more conservatively on his feet while using his reach, which will lower Guillard’s chance to score a flash KO.

Guillard has the skill to pull one off, but if you’re a betting man, the smart money has to be on Diaz for this fight because he can win the fight in so many more ways.

The pick: Nate Diaz (+260).