UFC 109 Preview – Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

The welterweight battle at UFC 109 will pit the veteran Mike Swick back in the octagon after a loss to Dan Hardy, where he looks to get back on track to earn a shot at Georges St. Pierre. Swick has some very strong abilities overall, but he also has some frustrating bad habits that can drive his UFC betting backers absolutely nuts. To keep his contenders status alive, Swick will have to stave off rising star, Paulo Thiago.

Perhaps the most agonizing element in Mike Swick’s game is his inability to capitalize on his tremendous reach. Sure he’s faster than most opponents, but you’d think a guy with such long arms would utilize the jab more frequently than he does. He’s either unwilling to use the jab or he’s just an idiot, and part of the problem with placing a UFC bet on Swick is his nonexistent defense.

Dropping his hands to launch big punches will land Swick in a world of trouble in any fight, but it will especially place him in the fire against his Brazilian opponent who possesses knockout power though he hasn’t demonstrated it that much. At 12-1 SU, Thiago wins the majority of his fights by submission. He can close the gap extremely well and has great foot work around the octagon. In fact, in his relatively young career, he’s never been submitted or knocked out and he has some strong momentum stemming from his win at UFC 106 over Jacob Volkmann.

Thiago is not a perfect fighter and, like Swick, he has a lot left to learn before he’s ready to face a champion. This may seem like the typical “grappler vs. striker” matchup, but what has given Swick the early advantage in UFC betting is his insufferable takedown defense. Better striking and an iron-clad takedown defense makes the options for Thiago extremely limited. It will be virtually impossible for him to gain the upper hand in this fight.

Swick is far more experienced and has the lanky range and the strong standup to keep Thiago guessing the entire fight, but that doesn’t mean I’m taking the betting favorite in this one.

I love Thiago’s chin. That came out weird, but this kid has just has a thick skull and is able to take a beating. On top of that his power in close range is better. The UFC experts are saying that Thiago doesn’t have the skill, nor the experience, to hand in the ring with a guy like Swick but I am damn sure they’re wrong. This kid is fierce.

Staying close the entire fight and belting opponents in to dream land is simply something that Swick hasn’t been able to do against tougher opponents. This fight also marks the first time Swick will face a Brazilian, and while I’m not suggesting that all Brazilians are superior I will give them the advantage when it comes to pedigree and training. Thiago has found a weakness in the game of Swick and while Swick plays defense in the second round after realizing the power of Paulo, the Brazilian will find a way to counterpunch his way to victory using the exposed chin of his opponent.

Furious Free Pick: Thiago +185 OVER Swick -220

Bet on this and more of the hottest sports events at BetUS.com >> Join NOW!