UFC 109 Free Pick – Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

The winner of the tilt between Marquardt and Sonnen will likely earn a matchup against the winner of the vaunted Belfort-Silva matchup, meaning that both fighters will be laying everything on the line when they get locked in to the octagon against one another. Nate Marquardt is inches away from the title shot that he rightfully deserves, but he’ll have to prove that he can steer clear of the slithering takedowns of the underrated Sonnen.

Nate “The Great” Marquardt is 29-8-2 SU in his MMA career and is a wildly popular fan favorite due to his jaw buckling punches. You win the crowd with knock outs and Nate has made that a specialty of his lately. His last three fights, all wins, have all been decided by striking and all of them have been exhilerating knock outs. At UFC 102 Marquardt stuffed Damian Maia in to a coffin with just one punch twenty-one seconds in to the fight. What Marquardt will aim to do for the entire fight is keep Sonnen on his feet.

While Sonnen has earned back-to-back unanimous decisions in his last two fights, earning victories over Yushin Okami and Dan Miller, the 32-year old veteran simply hasn’t developed a strong standup game. At 24-10-1 SU in his career, only seven of his fights have been decided by knockout. Despite being listed as a takedown specialist, Sonnen somehow fails to register submissions. Only three of his victories were won by tap out.

UFC and MMA handicappers have given Marquardt the heavy edge as a -400 favorite, but Sonnen is bound to show us something new in this fight. There’s no way he walks in to a fight with four months of prep time to simply show us his typical one-two combos. Sonnen is tactically superior to the brute strength shown by Marquardt, as was displayed when he beat Dan Miller with just 22 days notice, losing 36 pounds to meet weight. Only an idiot would rush Marquardt with fists of fury, and I’m banking that Sonnen is anything but.

What Nate has excelled at recently is counterpunching, and he’ll be looking for that crowd jolting knockout punch all night. When he doesn’t find it, frustration will begin to set in. The fighter nicknamed “The Great” is a sound Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but he’s never seen anything in the octagon like Sonnen who is far and away one of the best top control guys in the world right now.

Marquardt is itching for a rematch against Silva since getting knocked out at UFC 73 and that’s one betting x-factor that you have to consider. The 30-year old Marquardt will be looking past the relatively unknown Sonnen and will try to end this fight early. Getting bested on the ground will not only send Nate in to a maddening panic, it will also thoroughly exhaust him.

When that happens, Sonnen will either stick to a heavy ground and pound strategy, or look for the submission. Either way, this fight is going to the ground and staying there. The only people that will be on their feet are those in the crowd as they watch the biggest upset of the night unfold.

Furious Free Pick: Sonnen +300 over Marquardt -400