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posted November 21, 2009 at 11:00 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks

UFC 106 Light Heavyweights - Griffin vs. Ortiz in the Main Event

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UFC 106 - Light Heavyweights

November 21 - Las Vegas

Forrest Griffin -145
Tito Ortiz +115

>> Join now to bet on Ortiz vs Griffin at UFC 106

For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:

Griffin (16-6, 3 KO's), the-145 favorite in the BetUS UFC betting odds, was one of the great  "discoveries" produced by the "Ultimate Fighter" series on Spike TV. Of course, he had quite a bit of experience before that. Griffin actually lost a unanimous decision in his pro debut to Dan Severn back in 2001 and reeled off victories against the likes of Jeff Monson, Travis Fulton and Chael Sonnen before hooking up with the UFC.

When he beat Stephen Bonnar in the TUF light heavy finale in that first season, that led to a star being born. Naturally, Griffin was going to take his lumps first; he suffered a loss to Tito Ortiz the first time the two met up, and was stopped in the first round by Keith Jardine. His win over Mauricio Rua at UFC 76 won him "Submission of the Night" honors, then had a huge follow-up with a win over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson on a decision to capture the UFC light heavyweight title.

Griffin lost the title in his first defense when he was stopped by Rashad Evans in three rounds at UFC 92 last December. Then he found himself outgunned by Anderson Silva in his next fight; as Silva was moving into the light heavyweight division again, he knocked out Griffin in one round.

In his last three fights, Griffin has been the recipient of "Fight of the Night." Griffin has a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, along with a degree in political science from the University of Georgia.

Ortiz (15-6, 8 KO's), the +115 underdog at BetUS, has had one of the more storied careers in the brief history of the UFC. A collegiate wrestler at Cal State-Bakersfield, he came into MMA with UFC 13 in May of 1997, with a quick TKO over Wes Albritton.

He fought plenty of tough guys early, going into the Octagon against Guy Mezger, Frank Shamrock, Wanderlei Silva and Evan Tanner within his first ten fights. The fight with Shamrock, which he lost, was for the UFC middleweight title, then, after the light heavyweight crown was established, he moved into that division and beat Silva on a decision to capture the championship.

He defended it five times, including a TKO over Ken Shamrock in the first of their three battles. Ortiz lost the belt to Randy Couture at UFC 44, and was punched out by Chuck Liddell in the follow-up fight at UFC 47 (April 2004).

Ortiz then went on a streak of five straight wins, beating Vitor Belfort, Forrest Griffin, and scoring his other two wins over Ken Shamrock, which got him another shot at Liddell, this time with the title on the line, at UFC 66. The result was essentially the same, as Ortiz got stopped again, this time in the third round.

Then came a draw against Rashad Evans, who went on to win the light heavyweight title himself. Ortiz came back at UFC 84 as he faced undefeated Lyoto Machida, and was defeated on a unanimous decision, after giving Machida some anxious moments in the third and final round. Ortiz has also been active in the TNA organization in pro wrestling, as well as submission wrestling, and is in a relationship with porn star Jenna Jameson.

The first time these guys met, at UFC 59, Ortiz won the decision but that was generally considered to be a bad call, and for the purposes of putting Ortiz "over" no less. Tito left the UFC after losing to Machida, then went back again, signing a six-fight contract. So the question becomes - is he being put "over" again?

We don't really know, although we admire Dana White's ability to tie up potential free agents for long periods. If you contend that Griffin is the guy who actually deserved to win that fight the first time they met, then Ortiz hasn't really scored a significant victory in mixed martial arts in what is almost five years.

A couple more questions are in order: Do "styles make fights," like they do in boxing? And, was Griffin's beat-down at the hands of Silva an indication that he is not quite top-shelf as a fighter, but perhaps maybe a bit "flukey"?

It is said that Forrest lacks true power when on his feet, and that is known to be something of a weakness in Ortiz's game, so maybe Tito doesn't get hurt too much in that mode. I don't know if Griffin is going to be able to deal with Ortiz's takedowns; that is, if Ortiz is in any kind of shape, which he claims to be. This fight will almost unquestionably be fought on the ground.

I respect Griffin's popularity, but Ortiz might have him trumped there too. Yes, styles DO make fights, and here it leaves us with the underdog Ortiz, at +115 in the BetUS UFC mixed martial arts betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  GRIFFIN TO WIN (-145) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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