UFC 102 Upset Alert - Couture vs. Nogueira in the Main Event

With so many variables in Randy “The Natural” Couture-Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogeuira fight at UFC 102, rest assured that plenty of MMA bettors are still on the face about who pick in this one.

Take Nogueira, for instance. He is arguably a top five MMA fighter of all-time and he held the UFC’s Interim Heavyweight Title belt walking into his fight with Frank Mir. He promptly turned in not just the worst performance of his career but perhaps one of the worst performances in UFC history.

Nogueira doesn’t want to make excuses but he did relay the message that a staph infection in the days leading up to fight was what caused “Zombie Nogueira” as that version of Minotauro has been tabbed to show up against Mir.

Some fans aren’t buying it, however, and insist that time and the attrition of taking so many hard shots from top competition in PRIDE in Japan is to blame.

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Nevermind the fact that Nogueira is only 33 years old, an age when MMA fighters hit their prime, and 13 years younger than Couture; the prevailing opinion now is that he’s too old and washed up.

Couture on the other hand has consistently looked, well, about 13 years or so younger than his 46-year-old age in the Octagon. If not for Brock Lesnar’s massive 50-60 pound weight advantage on fight night when they battled, Couture might still hold the UFC Heavyweight Title belt.

But 46 is 46 and father time catches up to everyone, especially in a violent sport like MMA. Some bettors might feel that Saturday at UFC 102 could be the night Couture finally acts his age so to speak.

But the prevailing opinion is that Couture deserves to be the favorite going into this fight between legends, with odds of -180 for Couture to +150 for Nogueira.

Stylistically, this will be a match-up of Couture’s crafty stand-up, top-notch wrestling, and dirty boxing against Nogueira’s world-class jiu-jitsu, technical boxing, and excellent judo-based takedown game.

The main argument in favor of Couture (16-9 record) is that in a three-round fight, it will be hard for Nogueira (31-5-1) to pull off a submission in time like he did back in the PRIDE days, which featured 10-minute first rounds.

Couture might have a slight advantage standing up in this one but it will be hard for him to ground-and-pound Nogeuira and dangerous for him to take the fight to the ground period.

Couture is one of the best sprawlers in the UFC, but Nogueira has managed to take down virtually every opponent he’s fought including better fighters like Fedor Emelianenko and Mirko Cro Cop.

While Couture will get some shots in early, Nogueira has the will, the chin, and the diverse skills to eventually take the fight to Couture and to soften him up for a submission.

Couture has good submission defense but has never fought a guy with Nogueira’s ability to finish fights on the ground.

This is an extremely tough fight to call but most MMA fans feel that Nogueira’s best still beats Couture’s best, and if Nogueira shows up healthy and in shape this time, his youth and better skill set should be enough to pull the upset at UFC 102 this time around.