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posted July 9, 2009 at 18:49 EST in UFC / MMA Free Picks

Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman - The Hammer's Last Dance?

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

BetUS UFC Betting Odds

UFC 100 - Las Vegas

July 11 -- Light Heavyweights

STEPHAN BONNAR -350

MARK COLEMAN +250

For wagering purposes, let's size up the contestants:

BONNAR (11-5, 2 KO's), the -350 favorite in the BetUS UFC betting odds, is a protégé of Carlson Gracie, part of the Gracie family, legendary in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Supposedly he has also had a background in amateur boxing as well, competing in the Chicago Golden Gloves. His pro debut in mixed martial arts was in November of 2001, as he won a tournament in his native Hammond, Indiana. For his fourth pro fight, he went to Brazil for a meet up with Lyoto Machida, currently the UFC's light heavyweight champion, and suffered a cut that forced a TKO loss in the first round. He made his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin at the Ultimate Fighter 1 finale, and went al the way gamely but lost a decision. A key win came against Keith Jardine at Ultimate Fight Night 4, but he turned around and lost a majority decision to an up-and-coming Rashad Evans in his next bout. He lost his next fight, a decision in the rematch to Griffin, and after the fight he tested positive for an anabolic steroid and received a nine-month suspension. Bonnar next got back in the Octagon in July of 2007 with a submission win over Mike Nickels and then stopped Eric Shaefer at UFC 77. His last fight was on January 31, a decision loss to Jon Jones at UFC 94.

COLEMAN (15-9, 4 KO's), the +250 underdog at BetUS, is one of the all-time greats in mixed martial arts. A native of Fremont, Ohio, he finished up his college athletic career at Ohio State University, where he won an NCAA wrestling championship, then went on to the Olympics in Barcelona, taking seventh place in the freestyle competition. He kept wrestling as an amateur, beating Kurt Angle among others, and made his mixed martial arts debut at UFC 10, beating Gary Goodridge and Don Frye to win the championship. This is where he is thought to have invented the "ground and pound," a technique that has become very familiar to all MMA fans. At UFC 12 he choked out the capable Dan Severn to become the UFC's very first heavyweight champion. Then he lost in his first defense, as Maurice Smith beat him on a decision in a match that lasted 21 total minutes, including overtime. After losses to Pete Williams and Pedro Rizzo, he was written off by many, but had a rebirth in Pride, where he eventually won the Openweight Grand Prix. After a loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (who later won the interim UFC heavyweight championship), he went into retirement for a couple of years, then returned with a lackluster performance against Don Frye. He lost by submission twice to Fedor Emilianenko, and retired again. His last fight was January 17, as he came back from a layoff of more than two years to get stopped by Mauricio Rua in three rounds.

Bonnar is one of those guys who is tough as nails; yes, he was cut and couldn't finish in that early fight against Lyoto Machida, but he's gone the distance in all his other losses. He's fresher, that's for sure, and has less wear and tear. Many people attribute his loss to Jones to rust, after being out of action for more than a year.

It has been more than four years since Coleman won a fight, and at age 44, we really don't know what he has left. Some think it is fortunate for him that a scheduled meeting with Brock Lesnar never came off. He has concentrated much of the time over the last several years on his training center, and has more or less become a part-time fighter. Against Rua last time out, he was huffing and puffing after a single round. Is there enough reason to believe he is rejuvenated and in shape this time? You'd have to ask yourself that question.

Look - this one is simple. Bonnar will be in better shape, knows it, and will tailor a fight plan to fit that. I don't see him offering Coleman any opportunities to capitalize early, and will make him work for everything until he wears him down. Fighting at light heavy does not help Coleman.

We'd love to see the Cinderella comeback happen, but those things are few and far between. We're going with Stephan Bonnar, the -350 favorite in the BetUS UFC betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: BONNAR TO WIN (-350) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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