posted September 5, 2008 at 17:30 EST in UFC / MMA Betting Trends
Couture vs. Lesnar – So Big that this is just Part One for UFC 91
by Charles Jay
Mixed martial arts history will likely be made on November 15 at UFC 91 when Brock Lesnar, the former WWE wrestling champion, takes on UFC legend Randy Couture in a heavyweight bout that will take place in Las Vegas.
Here are the BetUS UFC betting odds on the fight:
November 15 -- Heavyweights
RANDY COUTURE -140
BROCK LESNAR Even
To clear up what might be some confusion (or maybe to indicate how confused I am), this is not for the UFC heavyweight title. Couture in effect gave that crown up when he left the UFC over a contract dispute. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is now the UFC's champion, having beaten Tim Sylvia for that distinction. Of course, it is an "interim" title, which shows you that in some respects, MMA isn't really so far ahead of boxing in terms of manipulating its own championship belts. The winner will fight the winner of a bout between Nogueira and Frank Mir, who scored a submission in Lesnar's UFC debut.
But title or not, this fight will be a blockbuster.
"Couture versus Lesnar will be the biggest fight in UFC history," said Dana White.
There is no way to dispute him. There has never been an event for the UFC that has had such crossover appeal. Yes, Couture would love to ultimately fight Fedor Emilianenko, who regardless of who holds the UFC belt, is the best of the world's big men. But that bout has nowhere near as much mainstream appeal as a Couture-Lesnar confrontation, which will draw everyone from MMA, wrestling and beyond.
Lesnar: "For me, it's a great opportunity, one that anybody in my position wouldn't turn down."
And why would he? He's younger, probably stronger, and coming off a win over a veteran (albeit journeyman) in Heath Herring in which Lesnar did just about everything he had to do. It could be argued that his stock is at an all-time high.
Couture's stock was somewhere in limbo, and up until this announcement, generally tied to his ability to get Fedor into the cage (or ring, as it were). But that was likely not going to happen, at least not while he was at odds with the UFC, which he had taken to court. Some have suggested that Couture, by agreeing to fight Lesnar, "sold out" to the UFC. But in reality, he was not in the right in his dispute. And he had not been able to win his "freedom." One could not assume that Mark Cuban. Couture's recently self-appointed benefactor, was going to subsidize his legal bills into perpetuity.
So here we are, and it is seemingly good for everybody.
Couture is the first man in UFC history to win titles in two different weight divisions, having held the light heavyweight and heavyweight crowns. He last fought in August of last year, defending his title against Gabriel Gonzaga. He has the vast edge in experience. But he is still very wary of his opponent.
"Coming from a wrestling background I know exactly what he's capable of," Couture said. "There's no way I will be overlooking Brock Lesnar."
Can Lesnar pull off the win, which would have to be considered an upset, much more than the current BetUS UFC odds would seem to reflect (in my humble opinion)?
Paul Heyman, Lesnar's former wrestling manager, as he was quoted in The Sun (published in London) said: "Lesnar is not proficient at submissions, so he's not going to finish off Couture. His best strategy will be to dominate him, but every moment Lesnar is holding him down, Couture will be looking for any small mistake, a moment where he can capitalize on an opening from Lesnar."
Couture has an MMA record of 16-8, which is a little deceptive because many of those fights were at the very highest of levels. He is 44 years old, which is something he can't get around. And as anyone who has witnessed combat - whether it's boxing, wrestling or martial arts - realizes, is that a fighter can get old overnight.
There are nonetheless future plans between the UFC and Couture. Reportedly a three-fight contract has been signed between the two parties. And Dana White has indicated that he would be happy to make the fight with Fedor happen, just as soon as Emilianenko's deal with the competing Affliction promotion expires, or, as White expects, the organization goes out of business, whichever comes first.
Obviously he is hoping the latter comes first. But regardless of that, the fact is that Couture is once again one of the UFC's own. I'm not sure that designation could ever be ascribed to Lesnar. As I have said before on these pages, my own observation is that Lesnar serves as an ideal model by which the UFC can "position" professional wrestling, and seeing Lesnar getting beat again by a former UFC heavyweight champion would serve as a statement that wrestling is what it is, but UFC is where the "real" warriors do battle.
That;s just one of many reasons why I don't want to get overly enthusiastic about the chances of a guy who has had just three mixed martial arts fights against one of the game's all-time best, who still has not been knocked off his perch.
But as I said at the top, this fight is BIG. Big enough that there is no doubt we'll come back with yet another story on it, offering something in the way of a final analysis.
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
