UFC 92 Main Event Breakdown Griffin vs Evans

Considering that the UFC's light heavyweight weight class is thought by many to be the promotion's marquee division, it's interesting to see a 205-pound title fight getting eclipsed by other fights on a card. But that's exactly what's happened with Forrest Griffin vs Rashad Evans at UFC 92. While it's still technically the main event, it has taken somewhat of a backseat compared to the TUF-fueled Mir / Nogueira showdown and a third battle between the ultra popular Quinton Jackson and Wanderlei Silva.

Still, this isn't about to keep us from breaking down the fight from top to bottom. The current ufc odds on the fight are Forrest Griffin (-130) and Rashad Evans (-110). The tight odds reflect the perception that this fight is a coin-toss, with Forrest earning favorite status on account of being more popular than Rashad.

So let's take a closer look at the recent records of both fighters: Evans has gone 4-0-1 in his last 5 fights, with wins over Jason Lambert, Sean Salmon, Michael Bisping and Chuck Liddell. He also holds a draw with Tito Ortiz. Griffin is 4-1 in his last 5, with victories over Stephan Bonnar, Hector Ramirez, Mauricio Rua, and Quinton Jackson. His lone loss was handed to him by Keith Jardine via KO.

The main concern with Evans' record is in what lies beyond the undefeated record. He was on his way to a 29-28 decision loss against Tito Ortiz before a point deduction for a fence grab saved him from losing his unbeaten mark. There was also a certain amount of controversy in his split decision win against Michael Bisping, with many feeling Bisping deserved a win. Still, there is no denying the power of Rashad's striking. Between Chuck Liddell and Sean Salmon, Evans owns two of the most brutal knockouts in UFC history.

As for Griffin, his KO loss to Keith Jardine raises questions about his jaw, and his rebound match against Hector Ramirez was a tentative affair. He thoroughly dominated a listless Mauricio Rua and managed to throw Quinton Jackson off his game to win a close decision.

One of the reasons this fight is hard to predict is there's no simple narrative to follow such as "Striking vs Jiu Jitsu" or "Wrestling vs Sprawl and Brawl". No one knows where either fighter plans to take this fight. Still, Rashad Evans certainly has an advantage on the feet with his power striking, and Forrest Griffin made his last two opponents look like amateurs on the ground.

While you're probably not going to see game plans from either fighter that reflects this, I would say that Rashad takes this fight on the feet while Forrest's key to winning is on the ground. Watch for a very careful striking battle early in the fight, with Rashad being very dangerous in the earlier rounds. The longer the fight goes, the better it is for Forrest. While word on the street is Rashad's cardio has improved several times over since the last time he went three rounds, I can't give him the edge in that department. We've seen Forrest perform well across three and five round fights in the past, while Rashad's performance goes downhill in the later rounds.