posted March 31, 2009 at 16:05 EST in Triple Crown Props
Kentucky Derby Power Rankings - Quality Road and Friesan Fire
The Todd Pletcher trained horse, Dunkirk, went off as the even money chalk in last Saturday’s Grade I Florida Derby but it was the 8/5 second choice, Quality Road, that provided profits for bettors.
Quality Road is out of Elusive Quality which means getting 1 ¼ miles shouldn’t be a problem. He’ll go into the Kentucky Derby off of a 5 week layoff. That shouldn’t be a problem either.
But he’s not the top choice in the racebook right now. That would be Friesan Fire.
Let’s take a look at the Kentucky Derby Power Rankings.
Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
1. Friesan Fire +700 - - There are no knocks against this guy. He’s 4-1-1 out of 7 lifetime races, ran at 2, and has improved enough to be a solid favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. At 7 to 1, he’s an overlay. Bettors will be lucky to get 5/2 on this guy on the First Saturday in May. That’s how good he looks. He’s the solid favorite.
2. Quality Road +700 - - What was impressive was how Quality Road responded after Dunkirk made a run to pull even with him. Quality Road has guts and because he’s as fast as any horse likely to get into the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, he deserves some recognition. Of course, the Derby will only be his 5th lifetime race but he did run as a two year old. He’s a solid bet.
3. Regal Ransom +2000 - - Watch out but the Arabs might have their best contender for the Run for the Roses since Street Cry. That win in the UAE Derby on Saturday was sensational and the fact that Regal Ransom is a Distorted Humor colt means that 1 ¼ miles will be easy for him. He could be a serious threat to the Americans.
4. Dunkirk +800 - - Let’s hope he has enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field because the move he made in the Florida Derby was absolutely breathtaking. Unfortunately, he was done in by his lack of experience and was obviously intimidated by Quality Road. If he improves, then he could fire a huge shot in the Derby. I love his style but he needs more graded earnings.
5. The Pamplemousse +900 - - How good is this horse? Nobody knows because he’s been running on artificial surfaces and could be a monster, or a dud, on dirt. He’s got a showdown against Pioneer of the Nile this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby. Gamblers will get a better idea of where he is after that race.
6. Pioneer of the Nile +900 - - Like The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile might be playing possum on the artificial surfaces. Maybe, he’s really that good. There’s no telling until he hits the Churchill Downs racetrack for the Kentucky Derby. Unlike The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile can close from off the pace which might be the way to go on the First Saturday in May.
7. I Want Revenge +900 - - Gamblers can’t get the Gotham out of their heads. I Want Revenge was sensational in that race but he has that Bellamy Road look about him instead of that Giacamo look about him. So what if he can run a half mile in 44? So can a lot of others in the Derby. He’ll need to prove that he can rate before I dump some real money on him.
8. Hold Me Back +1500 - - Winstar Farms might have a late blooming Kentucky Derby contender on their hands with the Bill Mott trained Hold Me Back. Out of Giant’s Causeway, Hold Me Back was spectacular when winning the Grade II Lane’s End Stakes two weeks ago. He’s a contender if he can show improvement in his next race.
9. Musket Man +2500 - - The Tampa Bay Derby winner probably isn’t good enough to win the Kentucky Derby but he deserves a look because he’s as gritty as any horse likely to get into the Derby field. He’ll fight hard, that’s for sure, but he’s just not talented enough to challenge some of the others in here.
10. Old Fashioned +1000 - - His second place finish in the Rebel Stakes was better than it looks on paper, but I’m inclined to keep my money in my pocket until his Arkansas Derby run. If he wins easily in the Arkansas Derby, then he automatically becomes one of he favorites on the First Saturday in May.
