Kentucky Derby Power Rankings - Friesan Fire is Hot

Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile Make Their Marks

After this weekend’s round of Kentucky Derby prep races, one thing is absolutely apparent. The most highly touted horses are probably going to be tough on the First Saturday in May.

This year’s group of Kentucky Derby contenders more closely resemble the 2007 class, when Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun battled it out for the roses, than 2008 when Big Brown came from nowhere to decimate a field lacking real talent.

These three year olds are really, really good.

Let’s get to the rankings!

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1. Friesan Fire +700 - - Friesan Fire swept the three year old prep races in Louisiana by taking down the Louisiana Derby this past Saturday. He did it easily, almost too easily, and had more than enough in the tank after crossing the finish line. Friesan Fire is so good that I’m willing to say that he goes off the favorite in the Kentucky Derby without even stepping onto the track again until the first Saturday in May. Why? It’s all about breeding. Fire’s dad is name A.P. Indy. That means the 1 ¼ mile Derby distance is right up his alley.

2. Pioneer of the Nile +900 - - I still think this Bob Baffert trainee is going to be much better on dirt. Yes, he just won the San Felipe stakes but it was a difficult race. I don’t know. In all of his races, Pioneer of the Nile hasn’t looked comfortable. So, either he’s overrated or he just hasn’t adjusted to the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. If he hasn’t adjusted to the Pro-Ride, then think about what he’s going to do when he gets back to a surface he likes. He could explode.

3. Dunkirk +700 - - Trainer Todd Pletcher is taking his time with this son of Unbridled’s Song who hasn’t raced since a smashing victory on February 19th in an allowance at Gulfstream Park. Maybe, Pletcher’s idea is to run him only once before the Derby. Dunkirk is ultra-talented but Todd better get something underneath him because he’ll be facing some terrific horses on the first Saturday in May.

4. The Pamplemousse +1000 - - Three straight victories, two of them on the lead, means that The Pamplemousse will be trying to pull a Big Brown on the First Saturday in May. Can he do it? Sure, because he’s running up front in races on the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. His victory in the Sham Stakes was amazing after running a half mile in 46 seconds and winning by 6 lengths.

5. I Want Revenge +1000 - - Trainer Jeff Mullins might have a serious star on his hands after I Want Revenge decimated a group of fellow three year olds in the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 7th. The race was the most impressive of the preps so far. The only problem is that like The Pamplemousse, Dunkirk, and some others on this list, I Want Revenge is a front runner. He’ll have to learn how to rate some before taking down Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile.

6. Musket Man +5000 - - 50 to 1 on the horse that just won the Tampa Bay Derby has to be considered good odds. It’s tough to win any of the prep races. The Tampa Bay Derby is no exception. He’s bred to be a sprinter, which is why he’s going off at +5000, but he started off his career by winning his first three races before a 3rd in the Sam Davis. His win the Tampa Bay Derby means he’s back on track.