posted June 21, 2007 at 18:18 EST in Triple Crown Free Picks

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his column. He will feature at least one Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

I'll update Wednesday's results tomorrow as I got a early start today and Wednesday's Pick 4 has not started yet. On Thursday we'll use a single in the third leg of the Pick 4 at Churchill Downs and try to take down the wager with a modest $36 wager.

My feature for Thursday is the seventh race at Belmont Park. We should see a fair price on our top pick Wallstreet Dancer, who is 9/2 on the morning line.

Featured Race of the Day:

BEL Race 7 OClm $50,000N2X (4:08 et)

#3 Wallstreet Scandal 9/2

#1 Dynaglider 3/1

#8 Tricky Causeway 4/1

#4 Dancing Forever 5/2

Analysis: #3 Wallstreet Scandal made a good late run to finish third last out against $35K claimers, beaten two lengths for the top spot off a five month layoff. Was claimed out of the race by Winning Move Stable and Contessa, who is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. Gelding is a two time winner on grass and figures to be fitter second off the bench. Has enough pedigree to handle the D/S.

#1 Dynaglider was a good looking winner last out against $35K foes and earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. The runner up in the race was Noah A., who came back to beat $35K claimers in his next start on 6/2. Gelding has won 3 of 4 over the grass here at Belmont in his career.

Race rating: $$$

Wager: #3 to win at 3/1 or better. Exacta key of #1,#3 over #1,#3,#4,#8.

Pick 4 of the Day: Churchill Downs Late Pick 4:

Starting in R6: $1: 1,4,6 / 5,7,10 / 6 / 1,3,7,11 = $36

CD Race 6 Clm $30,000N2L (3:45 et)

#6 He's a Dixie Boy, #4 Euphoric, #1 Brutal Attack

#6 He's a Dixie Boy finished a good second last out against $15K non winners of two in his first start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. Two back at Fair Grounds the colt missed passing this condition in a photo behind a repeat winner. Colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and does not need to move forward all that much second off the bench to get the job done here in this spot despite the rise up to the $30K level. #4 Euphoric came with a good late rally after getting bumped at the start, rallying for second while unable to catch the winner. Was claimed out of the race by Amoss barn that is 25% winners first off the claim. Barn has been on a roll at the meeting, hitting at a 32% clip.

CD Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:15 et)

#5 Holcomb, #10 Kaishu, #7 Roi Maudit

#5 Holcomb is a $140K Keeneland purchase making his second career start. Checked in second in his debut going a mile on the main track. By Capote (9% first turf) out of a unraced Storm Bird mare that has dropped three winners, top earner stakes winner Gold Storm ($507K). Barn has good numbers with second timers, hitting at a 25% clip (with a +ROI). #10 Kaishu makes his first start since last fall where the gelding set the early fractions and came up just a neck shy of the top spot. The winner of that race was I Believe in Me, who beat Alw-1 foes in his next start and has passed the Alw-2 condition. Biancone barn is 35% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

CD Race 8 Alw $52,500N2X (4:46 et)

#6 Burmilla

#6 Burmilla makes her first start since last June for Harty barn that is 15% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. $850K Keeneland purchase was not tested in her two career starts, breaking her maiden in her debut and taking a Alw-1 race at Belmont off a five month layoff. Nice pedigree, by Storm Cat out of the stakes winning mare Nanneri ($499K). Has a couple of quick works on the morning tab and is proven off the bench. #4 Chatham dueled for the early lead while down along the inside and faded to finish fifth, catching a main track that was favoring outside stalkers and closers. Two back ran a good third in the Instant Racing BC at Oaklawn, beaten just two lengths for the top spot. Is quick enough early to handle the cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs here.

CD Race 9 Clm $5,000 (5:17 et)

#11 Beau Rocket, #3 Don't Rock My Boat, #7 Still Smoldering, #1 Silver Minister

#11 Beau Rocket set the early fractions in the slop and held on to beat $7.5K non winners of three in the slop at River. Gelding earned a career top in that effort and not often we back a River horses shipping in here but this race is wide open and we might see a decent price on this guy, who appears to be heading in the right direction. #3 Don't Rock My Boat dueled for the early lead from the rail and weakened to finish fifth last out trying to get nine furlongs. Wa claimed out of the race by Cahill barn that over the past five years is 8 for 34 (24%) first off the claim. Worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.

Longshot Plays of the Day:

These are some price plays that should be watched today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

BEL R2: #6 Jabeesh 10/1

BEL R4: #7 Miss Poison 10/1

BEL R6: #11 Montauk 15/1

BEL R8: #6 Le Dauphin 12/1

BEL R9: #11 Aunt Teree 10/1

CD R2: #4 Gold Trim 10/1

CD R5: #9 Naughty Feller 15/1

CD R8: #7 Wildcat Fan 12/1

CD R9: ## Don't Rock My Boat 15/1

Weekly Track Bias Report Update For June 11 to June 17

Belmont Park:

6/13/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 4 gate to wire

Churchill Downs:

6/13/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-4 paths, 0 gate to wire

6/15/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-4 paths, 2 gate to wire

6/16/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire

Hollywood Park:

6/13/07: edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire

6/14/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-4 paths, 0 gate to wire

6/15/07: slight edge to stalkes/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire

6/16/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-4 paths, 0 gate to wire

6/17/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire

Calder:

6/11/07: slight edge to speed, 2-3 paths, 5 gate to wire

6/16/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire

6/17/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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