This Preakness is not for the Birds or Dudes

Sure, no filly has won the Preakness Stakes (G1) since Nellie Morse pulled off the feat in 1924, but there have not been too many that have tried.

The last filly to run in the Preakness Stakes was Excellent Meeting ten years ago. Granted, that did not work out very well, the filly was eased.

The last two fillies that were competitive in the Preakness happened to be Kentucky Derby winners. Winning Colors was dueled into defeat in the 1988 Preakness, weakening to finish third.

Despite getting roughed up by the boys in 1980, Genuine Risk held on to finish second.

With several top three year olds (I Want Revenge and Quality Road) off the Triple Crown trail due to injuries, and with questions about just how much of a fluke Mine That Bird’s Derby win was at 50/1, this may be the year the ladies celebrate at Pimlico.

Despite what could end up being a short price, it looks like I am joining the “other team” and backing the filly to win the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes:

Pimlico Race Course Race 12 Preakness S. G1 (Post time 6:15 et)

#13 Rachel Alexandra 8/5

#5 Friesan Fire 6/1

#1 Big Drama 10/1

#9 Pioneerof the Nile 5/1

#3 Musket Man 8/1

Analysis: #13 Rachel Alexandra draws the outside post and is going to be the likely short priced favorite, but she looks like she can beat this group of three year olds. She has four straight triple digit Beyers on her resume and none of the boys in here have two. She won for fun last out in the Kentucky Oaks, expending much less energy than her male counterparts did a day later in the Derby.

She has not been tested in her last four starts and now she makes her first start for the Asmussen barn that is 21% winners with newcomers to the barn. The barn usually moves runners up, and she just needs to stay at the level she has been performing at to get the job done. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip just off the pace, as #1 Big Drama figures to be the pacesetter.

There is a long run going into the first turn at this distance at Pimlico, giving Borel plenty of time to tuck in and save some ground going into the first turn. With plenty of square money in the pool I am hoping her price drifts up a couple of notches.

#5 Friesan Fire as my second choice in the Ky Derby and he failed to make an impact as the favorite. He found trouble, getting bumped and squeezed back at the start, raced in traffic and was not persevered with in the late going. He grabbed a quarter in the race and seemed doubtful he would make this race. The fact Jones has him ready and he popped a good work over the racing strip on 5/12 signals this guy should bounce back with a much better effort here today.

#1 Big Drama is the wild card in the field coming off his track record performance in the G2 Swale. He was DQ'd for interference in the stretch, costing him the race and the track record. This Ones for Phil was put up to first, and came back to finish second in the G3 Withers in his next outing. The colt has handled the distance in both of his routes and his G2 Delta Jackpot win was around three turns. The blinkers come off and Johnny V. is on. Breaking from the rail he figures to be sent early.