The Belmont Stakes - And the Winner is...

Dubbed as the Calvin Crown since Mine That Bird’s jockey, Calvin Borel, has a chance to win all three of the 2009 Triple Crown races on two different horses, this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes figures to be an ultra-competitive affair.

The Belmont is called the Test of Champions for a reason. Very few horses have the ability to run 1 ½ miles. Not only that, but because it’s difficult to gauge how fast the front runners are running, pressers and closers are at a distinct disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes.

Out of the three Triple Crown races, the Belmont is without a doubt the one that requires excellent race riding for success. Usually, like in this year’s Kentucky Derby, the best horse wins the race. Usually, like in this year’s Preakness, there are enough speedsters and closers for the race to be run to form.

But the Belmont? To win the Belmont, jockeys have to know when to push the accelerator and when not to. That makes it a jockey’s race.

Let’s take a look at my top four choices to win this year’s Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes: To Win

First Choice: Charitable Man +300

Analysis: After having seen every horse in this race run at least once, there is no question in my mind which horse in the race is the best. That’s the Grade II Futurity champion from 2008, Charitable Man. The two time Grade II winner, Charitable Man won the Belmont Stakes prep, the Peter Pan, in his last race, would be undefeated except for a try on the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes. According to his trainer, Kieran McLaughlin, Charitable Man was ready to run that day but that he didn’t like the Polytrack. McLaughlin and the owners decided to skip the Kentucky Derby and instead prep for the Belmont. After all, Charitable Man’s father, Lemon Drop Kid, had won the Belmont in 1999 to end Charismatic’s try for the Triple Crown.

Now, his son is poised to end Calvin Borel’s try for the jockey’s Triple Crown. Why will he do it? Pace. That’s the man reason. There isn’t a single other horse in the race that can run with Charitable Man upfront. No matter how well the closers perform in the race, and they should perform well, Charitable Man should have the front end all to himself. With only Miner’s Escape even capable of staying within 2 to 3 lengths of him, Charitable Man should find himself in the winner’s circle at the end of the Belmont Stakes. He’s the play for the win money.

Second Choice: Dunkirk +400

Analysis: Dunkirk has one advantage over Mine That Bird in this race. He will be closer to Charitable Man in the early stages of the race. Dunkirk’s Kentucky Derby run was a horror show as he was bumped shortly leaving the gate, got jostled, and just never got his feet underneath him.

That could change on Saturday. Dunkirk is still one of the most talented horses of his generation and he should be much more ready to beat the likes of Mine That Bird then he was five weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby. Dunkirk should be in the garden spot, shadowing Miner’s Escape and Charitable Man and ready to make a move at the top of the stretch. If the pace ends up being what I expect it to be, Dunkirk will make a move, leaving the rest of the field in his wake, but he won’t be able to catch Charitable Man.