posted June 6, 2009 at 11:30 EST in Triple Crown Free Picks
Odds to Win the 2009 Belmont Stakes
by Charles Jay
Mine That Bird, which came on like a locomotive to win the Kentucky Derby in May, proved that was no fluke with a monster finish at Pimlico, narrowly missing out to the fast filly, Rachel Alexandra. With that filly out of this race, some figure the path has been cleared for jockey Calvin Borel to win a third Triple Crown race this season. What about that?
BetUS Sportsbook Odds
To Win Belmont Stakes
Chocolate Candy +1000
Dunkirk +400
Mr Hot Stuff +1500
Summer Bird +1200
Luv Gov +2000
Charitable Man +300
Mine That Bird Ev
Flying Private +1200
Miners Escape +1500
Brave Victory +1500
My first instinct in this race was to look very hard at MINE THAT BIRD (-125 in the BetUS odds), the son of Birdstone, who won this race in 2004 and had monster finishes in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. This horse did not fade, and in fact came well off the pace - from 19th place coming into the turn at Churchill Downs, in point of fact. Caklvin Borel, who is back on board after riding Rachel Alexandra to a rousing win in the Preakness, has made a de facto guarantee that Mine That Bird will win, and in effect, that he will win a "jockey's Triple Crown," having also ridden "Bird" in the Derby.
The caution about Mine That Bird, however, is that he might be a bit uncomfortable with some of the slower early fractions, as there is not a lot of pace in this race. That means there would be more horses with something left in the tank when it would be time for the Derby winner to make his move. That could cause this horse to fall short at the mile and a half distance. Trainer Chip Woolley has said that he would like to be able to stay about 10-12 lengths when it's time to move.
One of the horses who might have a lot left at that time is the one that is getting most of the buzz from the backsiders this week. The two-year-old season of CHARITABLE MAN (+300 at BetUS) was cut short by a fracture in the left foreleg, then came back and lost his first start of the year on the synthetic surface at Keeneland. That was also this horse's first and only outing in a Grade I stakes. Charitable Man is three-for-three on dirt, two-for-two over the Belmont course, including a 3-3/4 length win ion the Peter Pan Stakes at a mile and an eighth on May 9, and is the son of Lemon Drop Kid, who won the Belmont in 1999, so he is also bred for this distance.
Jockey Alan Garcia won last year's Belmont aboard longshot Da'Tara, and is the leading jockey at Belmont this season. Trainer Kieran McLaughlin won the Belmont three years ago with Jazil, who was a 6-to-1 shot. With Rachel Alexandra, the fabulous filly, having pulled out of the race, Charitable Man is expected to be on or near the lead, and the pace does not figure to be exacting. Todd Pletcher, who trains Dunkirk, says "It's going to be hard to catch a quality horse like Charitable Man, if he gets a half in 49 seconds." D. Wayne Lukas, who saddles FLYING PRIVATE (+1200 at BetUS) and LUV GOV (+2000 at BetUS) in the Belmont, calls Charitable Man "the perfect Belmont horse". The consensus is that McLaughlin knows exactly what he is doing when preparing horses for this particular race.
Pletcher isn't too bad himself in the Belmont, though, having that win with filly Rags to Riches in the '07 Belmont, with both Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver in the money the year before. If you're looking for a contender with a little better price, you might want to do what I'm doing and put DUNKIRK (+400 at BetUS) in there somewhere. This horse did not race as a two-year-old, which did not bode well for its success in the Kentucky Derby. He stumbled shortly after coming out of the gate and didn't take to the wet track very well, finishing eleventh. He skipped the Preakness, and sometimes that has been a winning path; four of the last nine Belmont winners ran the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Pletcher is very confident leading up to race, in a way he did not feel in the days before the first leg of the Triple Crown. Dunkirk got a clean trip in the Florida Derby and finished second to Quality Road, chalking up a Beyer figure of 108, which may or may not be very important but certainly indicates that he has more than enough speed to win this third jewel.
The question is, will he get the chance to use all of it?
