135th Kentucky Derby - And the Winner is…

Race-day: 5/2/2009
Race-time: 6:24 pm est.

The morning line odds and the post positions have been drawn for the 135th Kentucky Derby. I’ve been up since around 3:00 a.m. this morning pouring over the stats for this race, desperately looking for the victor.

I’m not even close to putting together my yearly wagering strategy. I usually come up with a couple of nice Pick 3’s and a very nice trifecta bet. That will come later but I have settled on my top five picks for the Kentucky Derby including the horse I believe will win the race outright.

Let’s get to it!

Churchill Downs – Race 11
Grade I Kentucky Derby
$1,000,000
For Three Year Olds and Up
1 ¼ miles on dirt

Winner: Pioneerof the Nile
Morning Line Odds: 4/1

Analysis: Pioneerof the Nile is my pick to win the 135th Kentucky Derby. After looking at every factor, trainer, jockey, speed, race set-up, Nile is the best bet at the odds to wear the roses at the end of the race. Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Derbies already. Jockey Garret Gomez took down three Breeders’ Cup race this past fall and, therefore, can handle pressure. Pioneerof the Nile has busted three terrific works, two on the Churchill Downs racing strip, since his Santa Anita Derby win. He’s out of Empire Maker who won the Belmont Stakes in 2003. His mother is a Lord at War mare. He’s breaking from a post that, because of his style, shouldn’t hinder him in any way and there isn’t a lot of speed. Nile pulls a Charismatic in this race by sitting two lengths behind the pacesetter before simply taking over at the top of the stretch. He should provide Baffert with his fourth Kentucky Derby victory.

Second Place: Regal Ransom

Morning Line Odds: 30/1

Analysis: First of all, don’t be fooled by the odds. Regal Ransom is a quality animal having won the Grade II UAE Derby in Dubai and finishing second in the Grade III UAE 2000 Guineas. Second, he’s been kicking back at Churchill Downs for a while now. So, he’s acclimated himself. Finally, and this is a big one, jockey Alan Garcia, who had his pick of Regal Ransom or Desert Party, chose to go with Regal Ransom. Ransom is Godolphin’s best chance at Derby glory to date and the pace of this race should be too his liking. Garcia will go for the lead if nobody else wants it and I can envision both Regal Ransom and Pionnerof the Nile getting a half mile in 47 and change. That would spell doom for the rest of the field. Think about betting Regal Ransom to win right now in the BetUS online racebook and locking into those 30 to 1 odds. His odds will drop like a rocket on Derby Day.

Third Place: I Want Revenge

Morning Line Odds: 3/1

Analysis: I Want Revenge is the favorite to win the 135th Kentucky Derby. In my opinion, he goes off at 2 to 1 in this race after a lot of the once a year horseplayers get to the windows. The reasons are there. He has the highest Beyer Figure out of any horse in the race, a 113 he received in his Gotham score. He had to run through and around traffic in his Wood Memorial score. He busted a terrific work on April 28th on the Churchill Downs racing strip. His father, Stephen Got Even, is out of A.P. Indy which means he is bred to get the 1 ¼ miles. But there are some serious knocks on the chalk as well. First, his jockey, Joe Talamo, has never ridden in a Kentucky Derby before. Second, his trainer, Jeff Mullins, has never trained a winner of the Kentucky Derby before. Third, he didn’t beat any horse of note in either the Wood or the Gotham. Finally, in head to head competition versus Pioneerof The Nile, in the Grade I Cash Call Futurity, and Grade II Robert B Lewis Stakes, Nile beat him both times. I Want Revenge is a deserving favorite, but he’s not my top pick.