What the Early Kentucky Derby Odds Indicate

We are twenty four hours out from the Run for the Roses and plenty of cash has already started to flow into the BetUS Racebook . The early odds are set and even though we may expect some prices to shift as post time draws near, the gambling public’s opinion can be roughly deciphered by looking at where the initial action is landing.

Friesan Fire holds the current favorite’s status at 4-1. With many patrons expecting a sloppy racetrack with scattered showers forecasted near Louisville, this is no surprise knowing that the Larry Jones trained entry absolutely relished the slop in the Louisiana Derby. Just remember before taking this short price that the horse is coming off of a seven week layoff and has never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth.

Perhaps the most surprising prices in the early action are the two horses from Dubai. Desert Party currently sits at 22-1 while Regal Ransom is holding at 36-1. Desert Party has trained well over the Churchill Downs strip over the past week and he is sired by Street Cry, father of the 2007 Derby winner Street Sense. Regal Ransom may just hit the board if the track comes up sloppy due to his front running style.

The Wood Memorial Winner, I Want Revenge currently sits at 6-1. These odds are double from his 3-1 morning line status. I see this as the biggest overlay in the race being that the colt is 2 for 2 on dirt and based on speed figures is the fastest horse in the race.

Pioneer of the Nile is 6-1 and remains an underlay seeing that he has never raced on conventional dirt and has never recorded a triple digit buyer speed figure.

Chocolate Candy is down to 9-1 from his 20-1 morning line status and is another horse who has never tried conventional dirt. His pre-derby works have been solid but my sources tell me he got hot in the starting gate while schooling the other day and with 100,000 screaming fans come post time, this is something to consider.

Second place finisher in the Wood memorial West Side Bernie 46-1 and third place finisher in the Arkansas Derby Summer Bird at 47-1 remain overlays.