Up to Triple Crown Betting Trends

posted April 9, 2008 at 15:41 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.

Wednesday’s featured races both have potential to pad our bankroll, with my top picks at 12/1 and 8/1. Our late Pick 3 play at the Aqueduct also has a couple of longshots in the mix. We’ll invest $24.

Playing exotics could payoff at both Keeneland and the Big A today. My Live Longshot list has 20 runners on it that may be in the hunt at generous prices, a good way to start the week.

Today's Featured Races of the Day:

AQU Race 6 Md $35,000 (3:25 et)

#8 Hoist the Gala 12/1

#1 Doc N Roll 5/2

#3 Brookhaven's Money 2/1

#9 C.T. Kaz 12/1

Analysis: #8 Hoist the Gala broke awkwardly, had to steady and dropped back and finished with some interest for third over an inside speed favoring racing strip. Two back ran third behind a 15 length winner, beaten just 3/4 of a length for the runner up spot. Gets some extra ground here and the main track should be kinder to his running style. Worth a look if we see close to the 12/1 ML.

#1 Doc N Roll was bumped at the start and made a good late rally to finish second last out going two turns, beaten a neck for the top spot. Was 4 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Tagg runner is on the improve and with a better start expecting to see this guy much closer to the lead here in this spot. Has three sibs that are winners including minor stakes winner All About Alison ($101K).

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.

 

EX: 1,8 / 1,3,8,9

 

TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,2,3,8,9,10

 

KEE Race 7 OClm $100,000N$Y (4:10 et)

#5 Success Success 8/1

 

#2 Indian Chant 7/5

 

#3 Forest Blue 6/1

 

#4 Bold Start 4/1

 

Analysis: #5 Success Success made a good late rally to beat Alw-3 optional claimers last out at Fair Grounds. He checked in third here over the poly last fall against Alw-3L foes in a decent effort. Has the right running style for the surface and has the right price, likely to get overlooked on the tote here in this spot.

#2 Indian Chant dueled for the early lead and could not go with the winner late in a runner up finish in the Hot Springs at Oaklawn. Gelding owns a solid pace profile with the edge in early pace numbers. Won back to back over the Tapeta last fall before checking in fourth in the G3 Phoenix three back. Has earned triple digit Beyers in 5 of his last 8 starts and makes his third start off the bench. Only real knock is the light price and fact speed just does not seem to hold up over this surface.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better.

 

EX: 2,5 / 2,3,4,5

 

TRI: 2,5 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,7

 

Aqueduct Late Pick 3

Starting in Race 7: $1: 2,3,8,9 / 1,2,5 / 4,6 = $24

AQU Race 7 Clm $35,000N2L (3:55 et)

#3 Unbreelievable, #2 Millennium Jet, #8 All in No Outs, #9 Gulch Fever

 

#3 Unbreelievable tries turf for the first time in his career here for a low % outfit that is showing a 0 for 3 mark moving runners from dirt to turf. Last out the gelding dueled for the early lead before tiring to finish fifth against NY bred Alw-1 foes. One of his sibs is Hourly Storm ($290K), who won five times on grass. Lopez takes the call so you know this guy will be sent early.

#2 Millennium Jet had to check when caught in tight quarters leaving the far turn and did not threaten late in a eighth place finish last out. Three back made a mild late run to finish fifth, beaten four lengths for the top spot. One of his best turf efforts came at Tampa in his first go against winners, checking in fourth in a highly graded race that produced a pair of next out winners. Looks like a good fit here as he makes his local debut for Barbara barn.

AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:25 et)

#5 Angelic Aura, #1 Oedipus O'Neal / #1a Irish Majesty, #2 Mucho Margaritas

 

#5 Angelic Aura went gate to wire to beat $35K claimers last out and was claimed out of the race by Jacobson barn that is 12% winners first off the claim. The 14-time winner was claimed from Levine and steps into a tougher spot here but owns the edge in early pace numbers and might be able shake clear early here. It's a short field here and his 9/2 ML looks fair enough to give him a look.

#1 Oedipus O'Neal took advantage of a spewed friendly racing strip in his gate to wire win last out, defeating Alw-1 foes. The five year old has landed in the exacta in all three trips going nine furlongs. Main knock is the amount of time it took for him to pass his initial allowance condition but he does come in here in good form.

AQU Race 9 Md Sp Wt (4:55 et)

#4 Nuclear Meltdown, #6 Timirene

 

#4 Nuclear Meltdown makes her first start since last November for Terranova barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Was the beaten fav in her last two starts, last out making a good late rally to finish third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She has three sibs that are winners, one on turf.

#6 Timirene was outrun last out in her first go off a 10-month layoff. Three back this gal was third on the grass here, beaten two lengths for the top spot. Figures to be fitter second off the bench. Her sib Keen Irish broke her maiden on turf.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

AQU R1: #5 Union Center 15/1

AQU R1: #6 Hot Gold 8/1

AQU R2: #2 Brooklyn Bobbie 8/1

AQU R3: #3 Phil’s the Brit 12/1

 

AQU R4: #9 Barnfox 8/1

AQU R5: #3 Remorse 12/1

AQU R6: #8 Hoist the gala 12/1

AQU R6: #9 C.T. Kaz 12/1

AQU R7: #3 Unbreelievable 15/1

AQU R9: #10 Saratoga Chance 12/1

KEE R1: #8 Fort Apache Star 8/1

KEE R1: #3 Holiday Justice 8/1

KEE R3: #6 Faith’s Magic 10/1

KEE R4: #8 Talkin Indian 12/1

KEER4: #7 Gypsy Baby 10/1

KEE R5: #8 Who Done That 12/1

KEE R6: #11 Unjust 8/1

KEE R7: #5 Success Success 8/1

KEE R10: #6 Born to Be 10/1

KEE R9: #10 Cato Major 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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