Kentucky Derby - Who are the Real Contenders after Pace Analysis

Perhaps the most overused sentence in modern thoroughbred racing, from a gambling point-of-view, is “pace makes the race”.

Of course, there’s a reason why it’s overused. Often times gambling parlance is only created because it’s true. Such is the case with the sentence, “pace makes the race.”

But what, exactly, does “pace makes the race” means? And more importantly, from the point-of-view of BetUS online racebook fans, will the sentence determine the winner of the 135th Kentucky Derby?

I’m here to write that, no, pace makes the race won’t necessarily determine the winner but it will definitely determine the losers of the 135th Kentucky Derby. I will also determine the horses with the best chances of winning the Derby.

In order to really find out which horses the pace makes the race philosophy will impact, we need to categorize the entire field into what we call front-runner, front-runners/pressers, straight pressers, and straight closers.

Let’s do that right now with the odds on each horse next to it.

Front-Runners - - Within 1 length of the leader or on the lead

1. Regal Ransom +2500

2. Join in the Dance – No odds

Front-Runners/Pressers - - Within 1 to 2 lengths of the leader

1. I Want Revenge +300

2. Dunkirk +500

3. Friesan Fire +500

4. Pioneerof The Nile +500

Straight Pressers - - Within 3 to 4 lengths of the leader

1. Papa Clem +1200

2. Desert Party +1500

3. Chocolate Candy +1600

4. General Quarters +2000

5. Musket Man +2000

Straight Closers - - Within 5 lengths or more from the leader

1. Hold Me Back +2000

2. Win Willy +2000

3. Advice +2500

4. Westside Bernie +2500

More horses than these will enter the Kentucky Derby fray but those horses, in my estimation, have absolutely no chance. I’m not even calculating what they will or won’t do in the Kentucky Derby.

These 12 are the most important dozen in this year’s Derby and either will have a serious impact on the Derby, like Join the Dance, or have a legitimate shot to win.

Let’s analyze the pace of the race. From what I’ve written above, Regal Ransom, the Godolphin trained son of Distorted Humor, will go for the lead. Join the Dance, out of the Todd Pletcher barn, will try to press Regal Ransom from the outset.

That makes two speed horses in at least a 12 horse field, but from what I’ve written only two. How often do two speed horses in a 1 ¼ mile race impact that race? I would say close to 95% of the time. Only two speed horses tells us one thing in regards to “pace makes the race” - - that the pace of the 135th Kentucky Derby should be slower than normal which means that closers like Hold Me Back, Win Willy, Advice and Westside Bernie really have no shot. Closers do well when they have a fast pace to run at. It’s almost a guarantee that there won’t be a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby.

Just by concentrating on pace, horseplayers can pare the field of legitimate contenders from 12 down to 8.

What about the other 8 horses?