posted March 14, 2008 at 16:35 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

The Kentucky Derby prep races continue this weekend with the Grade III Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida.

We will be hard-pressed to find a horse to challenge the unbeatable looking Pyro or the exceptionally fast War Pass in either one of these races. But all that means to us is that we can put some money on a nice long-shot or two in order to build that bankroll for the Dubai World Cup in two weeks.

Let’s get to it!

Grade III Rebel Stakes

Oaklawn Park – Arkansas

1 16th miles on dirt

Z Fortune will be the chalk in this race, but based on speed ratings Z Fortune isn’t any better than about four or five others in here. We need to take a stand against the favorite in this race and go for a long-shot. In my mind that long-shot horse is King’s Silver Son who just broke his maiden at the Fairgrounds for trainer Steve Asmussen. Asmussen also trains Z Fortune and the number one ranked Pyro. King’s Silver Son is out of Mizzen Mast which automatically makes him a good proposition at huge odds in this race. Not only that but because has produced low speed ratings, a price is assured. He’s been training forwardly for this and hasn’t been out since January 8th. If he’s grown up at all, he’s got a shot. For second, let’s deny Z Fortune again and go with Anak Nakal for trainer Nick Zito. Zito trains both War Pass and Cool Coal Man. With those two in the barn, Anak Nakal is obviously Zito’s third or even fourth stringer. That doesn’t matter in this race. Nakal ran terrible off the lay-off in the Grade II Fountain of Youth. With that race under his belt, however, he has every right to improve. Z Fortune should finish no worse than third in this race.

1. King’s Silver Son

2. Anak Nakal

3. Z Fortune

Grade III Tampa Bay Derby

Tampa Bay Downs - - Florida

1 16th miles dirt

War Pass will go off 1 to 5 in this race and there really isn’t a reason not to expect him to win. With War Pass taking up the first spot, it’s our duty to find a couple of long-shots to round out the trifecta. Who’s going to finish second to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion? How about Dynamic Wayne who shouldn’t get a whole of attention since his daddy was Eltish and he’s trained by Dale Bennett. Let’s not kid ourselves. Unless there is something wrong with War Pass, Dynamic Wayne has no chance of winning the Tampa Bay Derby, but he does have a solid chance to finish second at double-digit odds. For third, let’s throw in Todd Pletcher’s Atoned. Atoned’s daddy, Repent, was a very good horse and extremely unlucky not to have won the Traver’s Stakes about six or seven years ago. No worries. Atoned can make up for that, right? Well, not in this race, but maybe down the line…

1. War Pass

2. Dynamic Wayne

3. Atoned

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