posted February 29, 2008 at 17:18 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Horse bettors have to tread lightly when runners that cost a lot of money, show up in softer spots offered for sale.

On paper, often times these runners appear to hold a decided class edge because in all likelihood they have faced better competition but the reality is that they don’t give away anything in this game and just because a horse cost a ton, or has faced tougher, doesn’t make him a cinch today.

Take a look at the players in the Daily Double at Gulfstream on February 23.

Eight pitted skills in the first race and the 4-5 favorite was taking the biggest drop in the game to a maiden claimer after running with Maiden Special Weight foes.

He had flashed only a little speed, and his trainer Nick Zito added the blinkers to no avail. The runner got a perfect three-hole trip but could not close the deal.

Confirmondi cost $150,000 but it only took his owners 3 races to put him up for sale and he failed again for a price this day when getting bet down to 3-1.

The winner, Call Tiger, was a homebred that ran into a ton of trouble in his debut. Instead of coming back for the same or lower price, his connections were trying tougher company and there is the tip off.

His trainer is almost 20% with deep layoff horses and this guy ran and hid from his foes at a fat 19-1.

When looking at maiden races like this, astute horse bettors put themselves into the minds of the owners. If a guy put up 6 figures for a horse and the horse is entered for a cheap tag, then it runs up a red flag that the horse was not what the connections had hoped for when they dug into their pockets.

In the second half of the Double this day, the favorite was troubled but also failed at 3-5. Forest Ranger is by a sire, Deputy Minister, who commands a $100,000 stud fee, yet this colt debuted for a $16,000 tag and now was entered for $12,500.

What’s up with that?

With speed blood on the bottom, and by such a high-profile sire, this guy had no business facing off against the low level runners of the circuit.

He failed when second but that’s only half the story for horse racing bettors to think about.

The show horse and second choice in the betting cost $200,000 at auction and had already failed a ton of times in maiden claimers.

He obviously was NOT the real deal.

The eventual winner, Send the Chief, was logically placed. The homebred had a modest background, his pops gets dates for $5,000, and the runner had flashed sneaky speed.

When the smoke cleared, the Chief took them wire-to-wire at 27-1.

The internal lesson for horse bettors here is to read into the true value of a horse before assuming the runner has an edge just because he was an expensive buy or from a sire that commands a ton of money.

This is a great way that astute bettors smoke out false favorites.

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