posted November 23, 2007 at 11:48 in Triple Crown Articles

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

There is a great 12 race betting card on tap at Churchill Downs on Friday. There are also plenty of prices to be found throughout the card and in the late Pick 4.

We'll invest $36 in today's Late Pick 4. All of today's handicapping was done long before the tryptophan took affect:

Churchill Downs Late Pick 4

Starting in Race 9: $1: 6,9,10,12 / 1,3,4 / 1,5,8 / 5 = $36

CD Race 9 Alw $52,500N2X (3:29 et)

#9 Japengo 10/1

#6 Tap Dancing Mauk 3/1

#10 Flashstorm 5/1

#12 Dr. Pleasure 4/1

Analysis: #9 Japengo made a good late rally to finish third last out going seven panels on poly in his first start off a 4 1/2 month layoff and that effort should set him up for a good effort here on the stretch out to a one turn mile. Was beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot by #4 Five Star Thief, who came back to beat optional claimers in his next outing on 10/24. McPeek is 24% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a 45-180 day layoff. The gelding is going to need to pop a career top here to get the top spot but we should catch a decent enough price to give him a short.

#6 Tap Dancing Mauk made a mild late run to finish fourth last out in the G3 Fayette and earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. Gelding makes his second start off a 4 1/2 month break and gets some class relief. Logical contender in this spot.

Wagering

WIN: #9 to win at 5/1 or better.

EX: 6,9 / 6,9,10,12

TRI: 6,9 / 2,6,9,10,12 / 2,6,9,10,12

CD Race 10 River City Hcp G3 (5:08 et)

#4 Big Prairie 6/1

#3 Ascertain 5/1

#1 Cosmonaut 2/1

#9 Skipped Ball 12/1

Analysis: #4 Big Prairie came up short last out in the G3 Sycamore trying to get 1 1/2 miles, checking in sixth while beaten 4 1/4 lengths for the top spot. His last two starts at today's nine furlong distance are solid. Two back earned a career top in a game runner up finish in the 2 Baruch at the Spa and four back earned his first triple digit Beyer beating Alw-4 optional claimers. The five year old has run pretty well over the turf here and figures to get overlooked on the tote.

#3 Ascertain comes in here riding a three race win streak, last out a $100K stake at Remington off a six month layoff. Two back this guy won the G3 Elkhorn going 1 1/2 miles. Here is another guy that likely will offer better value for the top spot than the likely favorite #1 Cosmonaut. The chalk was the pacesetter in the BC Mile before weakening to finish third. Exits the Biancone/Parisel snakepit and makes his first start for Martin barn. Hard to look past the 11 triple digit Beyers in his last dozen starts but at such a short price I'm going to take a stand against him for the top spot here.

Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4,9

TRI: 1,3,4 / 1,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,8,9

CD Race 11 Clark Hcp G2 (4:29 et)

#5 Brass Hat 8/1

#8 Istan 5/2

#1 Diamond Stripes 3/1

#7 Fairbanks 8/1

Analysis: #5 Brass Hat was a game winner two back in the Mass Cap as my top pick and it looked like this guy was back on his game. But he really tossed in a lousy effort last out in the G3 Fayette over the poly at Keeneland, checking in eighth. He does have a stakes win over poly at Turfway back in '05 so not sure we can blame the surface. Gelding put in a good breeze over the main track here on 11/6 and does have a win and a second in three trips over the surface. Looking for him to bounce back here and we should catch a fair price in this spot.

#8 Istan ran huge last out winning the G3 Ack Ack earning a career top 111 Beyer. He has earned triple digit Beyers in 4 of his last 6 starts on dirt. Only real question is whether he can handle the extra furlong against top notch company.

#1 Diamond Stripes was outrun last out in the BC Classic and Dutrow might have been better off running this guy in the BC Dirt Mile the day before. Bobbled coming out of the gate and never was in the mix over the sloppy going. Gelding is 3 for 6 at nine furlongs including winning the G2 Meadowlands Cup two back. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 5,8 / 1,5,7,8

TRI: 1,5,8 / 1,5,8 / 1,2,5,7,8

CD Race 12 OClm $100,000C (4:58 et)

#5 Linda's Lad 7/2

#9 Roman Dynasty 8/1

#8 Terrific Storm 5/2

#13 Northern Scene 8/1

Analysis: #5 Linda's Lad exits the G1 Canadian International where the colt was not a threat in a 11th place finish. She put in a good effort two back when a close up fourth in the G2 Sky Classic, losing some running room in the stretch and only was beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. He is a Group 1 winner and the class relief here entered for optional claiming should suit him and he should get back on the winning track here.

#9 Roman Dynasty has not been seen since he won the G3 Discovery 13 months ago. made two starts as a three year old on the turf, both at Colonial. Lands with McPeek who has really juiced up his numbers with layoff types, hitting at a 35% clip (with a +ROI) with horses racing coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 5,9 / 5,8,9,13

TRI: 5,9 / 5,8,9,10,13 / 5,8,9,10,13

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

CD R2: #2 Clear Conscience 8/1

CD R3: #1 Sgt. Joe 8/1

CD R5: #6 Unleash the Power 15/1

CD R5: #13 Wise Tod 8/1

CD R6: #6 Bk's Clearanceisle 12/1

CD R7: #10 Risen Chief 8/1

CD R7: #11 Full Marks 10/1

CD R8: #5 Russian Gypsy 8/1

CD R8: #8 Miss Elsie 8/1

CD R9: #9 Japengo 10/1

CD R10: #9 Skipped Ball 12/1

CD R11: #5 Brass Hat 8/1

CD R11: #7 Fairbanks 8/1

CD R12: #9 Roman Dynasty 8/1

CD R12: #13 Northern Scene 8/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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