posted April 2, 2008 at 13:41 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

The numbers game. That is what horse bettors have to deal with every single day and although there is no one digit that makes the magic come to life, the Beyer Speed Figure is as good a place to start as anywhere.

On the Triple Crown trail, Beyers can identify runners that have come out of the best races, may have peaked, or maybe those that are on the verge of putting it over the top.

Through mid March, let’s take a look at some of the figures the players have put up and try to make sense of it all.

The first 5 stepping-stones early in the year, the Trop Derby, Count Fleet, Hutcheson, LeComte and San Rafael were all solid races and as time went on, the performances improved.

All of those races were won with Beyers between 93 and 99 with El Gato Malo just under the triple digit barrier.

The second half of January is where horse bettors saw some separation. Seven stakes were carded on the Trail, and the numbers really differed. Brax took a minor stakes at Sunland with only a 68 Beyer and can be totally dismissed.

Yankee Bravo wasn’t much better in the Cal Derby with a 75 Beyer but both Gayego and Bob Black Jack emerged as legit players posting 102 and 109 figures respectively.

February saw a further dip in the figures and horse bettors need to pay attention to progression here.

In the first week of the month winners of preps recorded Beyers between 74 and 94. Georgie Boy was the only triple digit earner in the next week with Pyro showing improvement posting a 90 taking the Risen Star.

Seven preps were left for the rest of the month and the gap in figures went from 81, again at a non-venue like Sunland, to the 98 and 99 Beyers posted by Cool Coal Man and Go Go Shoot respectively when they took the Fountain of Youth and the Capossela.

Into March now and the true writing is starting to appear on the wall. Impressive as Pyro was visually taking the Louisiana Derby, he only put up a 95 figure, while Visionaire had a coming out party taking the Gotham with a number 3 digits higher.

For a bit of comparison, astute horse bettors can look to last year’s Louisiana Derby for clues. Note that Circular Quay was clearly best winning the fixture in 2007 by over 2 lengths and his Beyer of 102 stands up very well to Pyro.

On the other hand, the winner of the 2007 Gotham, Cowtown Cat, only put up an 88 figure getting a pretty much perfect trip. So in retrospect, Visionaire’s 98 figure towers over the Aqueduct number.

Several hours before St. Patrick’s Day Georgie Boy posted a 92 Beyer taking the San Felipe, Big Truck was a digit better upsetting the disappointing War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby and Sierra Sunset threw up a 99 figure winning the Rebel at Oakland.

Last year, the winners of those races recorded 96, 102 and 97 Beyers respectively.

As the days to the first Saturday in May dwindle down and the hype about certain horses go through the roof, the best horse bettors try to stay grounded and attempt to read into the Beyers as to what may happen in the future, not just what happened right before their eyes.

Remember, it has been important that a runner earned or matched his highest Beyer figure in one of his final two Kentucky Derby preps.

Since 1992, only three horses failed to reach that level and in the last dozen years, only 2 didn’t quality on that scope.

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