posted June 2, 2008 at 16:31 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

For IEAH Stables the writing appears to already be on the wall. The truth about their Triple Crown threat, the undefeated, brilliant, Big Brown is that the horse probably has little chance of racing past the Belmont Stakes on June 7th in Elmont, NY.

His soft feet have finally caught up with him. Even though according to all reports Big Brown is okay and will make it to the gate in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, it makes absolutely no sense why the horse should even run in that race. The bottom line regarding Big Brown, IEAH Stables, and the Belmont Stakes, is that the $50 million offered for the breeding rights to Big Brown far surpasses any elation his connections might feel by winning the Triple Crown.

Yes, the Triple Crown is special, but there’s a reason that not a single horse has won it in the past 30 years. Yes, Big Brown appears okay, but there’s a reason that the special doctor had to be called in to fix his hoof.

It just doesn’t make any sense for Big Brown’s connections to even be thinking about running the horse in the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes.

The Belmont Stakes is unlike any race that a 3-year old horse is likely to ever run in before or after his racing career. Simply put, the Belmont Stakes has ruined a horse’s career many times over. This is true not just for the horses that run in the race and lose but it’s also true for horses that run in the race and win.

Both Rags to Riches and Jazil were never the same after their Belmont Stakes victories. The same goes with the 2002 Belmont Stakes upset winner, Sarava.

Editor’s Note won the Belmont Stakes in the 1990’s and never bounced back from the grueling victory.

You have to be an incredibly special horse to win the Belmont. That means that small injuries, like the one that Big Brown suffered earlier last week, ultimately could be a horse’s undoing. It’s not like Big Brown will be running in a 6 furlong race on the grass.

That’s the kicker, isn’t it? Just because Big Brown’s connections feel that they have solved the problem with his foot, it doesn’t mean that the horse will be sound during the entire running of the 1 ½ mile race.

Horses injure themselves all of the time in five furlong work-outs when they aren’t running nearly as fast as they would in a race. This is something sports betting fans and horse racing betting fans need to take note of.

Doesn’t it stand to reason that Big Brown could injure himself during the running of the 2008 Belmont Stakes? Could he injure himself to the point where they might have to put him down the way Eight Belles’ connections had to do to her at the end of the Kentucky Derby?

Maybe. Maybe not. But at $50 million, I certainly wouldn’t be willing to take the risk.

Keep him out of this one, Richard Dutrow and IEAH Stables. It’s the best thing for the horse. Retire Big Brown now. There’s nothing else any of you need to prove.

It’s best for the horse and it’s best for IEAH Stables’ bottom line.

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