posted June 2, 2008 at 15:08 EST in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Big Brown went to the track on Tuesday, May 27th. That was one day before he was scheduled to return to the track. The big colt and Belmont Stakes betting chalk is battling a quarter-crack on his left front hoof. According to all of Big Brown’s connections, the quarter-crack isn’t a serious problem and that he shouldn’t have any issues making it to the gate in the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

Even if the quarter-crack isn’t an issue, those who thought Big Brown was a lock in the Belmont might want to rethink their position. There’s nothing really wrong with Big Brown, but Casino Drive, the much bally-hooed Japanese invader, is starting to look like a real threat to Dutrow’s horse. In fact the more I study Casino Drive’s pedigree, the more there is to like about him.

There’s another reason to like Casino Drive. It has everything to do with his entry-mate, Spark Candle, who ran one of the worst Beyer speed figures in the history of the Peter Pan, a 65, when running as an entry with Casino Drive. Spark Candle, a son of A.P. Indy, is a terrifically balanced horse. On paper, like Casino Drive, his pedigree is almost impossible to ignore, but his talent is questionable.

Then again, how talented will Spark Candle have to be in order to set up his more blue-blooded entry-mate? The thing about Spark Candle is that he will have one job in the Belmont Stakes. That would be to hassle Big Brown while Casino Drive gets into position to take down the Triple Crown threat.

Can Spark Candle do it? I don’t see why not. He broke poorly in the Peter Pan and then ended up going at it on the front end with Mint Lane. The two horses ran six furlong in 1:10 in the Peter Pan.

That’s pretty darn fast. Because Big Brown likes to run no more then 2 or 2 ½ lengths off the lead, a 1:10 six furlongs in the Belmont Stakes almost certainly will test the big colt’s resolve. It should also test those soft feet that might find the going a bit rougher in the Belmont Stakes then in the Preakness Stakes.

As good as Big Brown is, and even if his feet are perfect before the race, the expected speed duel that could develop in the Belmont Stakes almost certainly will be to Big Brown’s and an off track betting fans disadvantage. Spark Candle is no cheap speed horse. His father, A.P. Indy, won the Belmont Stakes in 1992. His mother, Serena’s Song, is considered one of the best fillies and mares of her generation.

Spark Candle should be plenty ready to do his job, go after Big Brown early, soften Dutrow’s horse up just enough, and get Big Brown unhinged for the freight train coming will be Casino Drive. It’s actually a tactic that could work brilliantly for Japanese trainer Kazuo Fujisawa. It’s obvious that Big Brown likes to run on or near the lead.

Why not give him a rabbit to keep him interested while Casino Drive begins his breathtaking move to the front?

It’s the type of move that might derail Big Brown’s Triple Crown march.

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