posted May 26, 2008 at 13:29 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Only so much can be said about Big Brown in this years 2008 Belmont Stakes .In 1999 a horse that had failed miserably at Santa Anita showed up in the Lexington Stakes, won that race, and then went on to win both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The horse’s name was Charismatic and the horse’s trainer was D.Wayne Lukas.

Todd Pletcher, Lukas’s protégé, didn’t win the 2008 Kentucky Derby or the 2008 Preakness Stakes with this year’s Lexington winner, Behindatthebar, but he will be trying to win the 2008 Belmont Stakes with his Lexington Stakes’ winner. Eventhough Big Brown is heavily favored to win this years Belmont Stakes race.

Behindatthebar, a son of Forest Wildcat and the Runaway Groom mare, Rhianna, will be trying to win the Belmont Stakes after a lay-off of more then seven weeks. Usually, that’s a bad sign but Behindatthebar scratched out of the Kentucky Derby. To me, that means that Pletcher was no doubt thinking about the Belmont when Big Brown crossed the finish line first on May 5th.

There’s no reason to doubt Pletcher’s ability to get Behindatthebar ready for the 1 ½ mile test. A bigger question is whether or not, no matter how good Behindatthebar is prepared for the Belmont Stakes, any horse can actually beat Big Brown.

But that question is valid for every horse in the Belmont not just Behindatthebar.

I actually like Behindatthebar’s chances. First, the only time this horse ran on conventional dirt was in the Grade III El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows. That was also Todd Pletcher’s first race with the horse. Before that Behindatthebar had been under the care of Southern California trainer Craig Dollase.

Second, Behindatthebar won his next two races, after Pletcher got a chance to sink his claws into the horse, by nice margins. The horse won an allowance race by 4 ¾ lengths at Santa Anita and then the Lexington Stakes by 5 ¾ lengths.

Finally, Behinhatthebar will come into this race a different horse. It will be his third lifetime race under Todd Pletcher’s care. That means that he should improve dramatically from his Lexington Stake’s score.

An improving horse going from an artificial surface to dirt should never be ignored if that horse is bred to like the dirt. That’s what we’ve got here with Behindatthebar. Being out of Forest Wildcat, he could be the horse that tracks right behind the expected two front-runners in this year’s Belmont Stakes, Casino Drive and Big Brown, which means Behindatthebar might be in the best position at the top of the stretch in the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

His current BetUS online racebook odds are 28 to 1. That would make him the sixth choice in a field of roughly eight to ten horses in the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

The odds are actually overlaid. Because Behindatthebar has only one dirt race to his credit, and it was before he got a chance to work with him, no horseplayer really can say how good he is. He could be an upset special come the Belmont Stakes, burying Big Brown’s chances to win the Triple Crown.

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