posted June 2, 2008 at 14:08 EST in Triple Crown Betting Trends

In 2004 Smarty Jones, the dominant winner of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, figured to bury his rivals in the Belmont Stakes and become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1979.

There was no doubt in the minds of almost every single horseplayer in the nation. Smarty Jones looked sensational in the Preakness Stakes. He was just fantastic. He had the stamina, the heart, the look and the speed to go down as one of the greatest horses in the history of thoroughbred racing. A win in the Belmont Stakes was all that was needed.

Well, look what happened. A horse by the name of Birdstone, trained by native New Yorker Nick Zito, upset Smarty Jones in Belmont Stakes betting and denied the son of Elusive Quality the Triple Crown.

Zito is back for the 2008 Belmont Stakes with Anak Nakal. Anak Nakal, a son of 1998 Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, doesn’t look to be anywhere close to the level of Birdstone. Then again, Birdstone didn’t look like he had a shot to beat Smarty Jones in 2004.

And besides, this is Nick Zito we’re talking about. At the beginning of this racing season, Zito had the horse to beat in the Triple Crown races in War Pass. He also had Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal. If anybody was going to wager on which trainer would saddle the horse, or horses, to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby, they would have definitely mentioned Nick Zito.

Zito is no stranger to Triple Crown success. He won the 1991 Kentucky Derby with Strike the Gold, the 1994 Kentucky Derby with Go for Gin, and the 1996 Preakness Stakes with Louis Quatorze. He’s trained Grade I winning 3-year olds A.P. Valentine, Halory Hunter, Albert the Great and Stephen Got Even.

Which makes me wonder what exactly he thinks he’s got in Anak Nakal. On paper the horse looks like an absolute play against, but with Nick Zito calling the shots, I sort of have to take another look.

Nick Zito takes his time with his horses. He never rushes them and usually will train them the old fashioned way - - five and four furlong works to build both stamina and speed, keep them in the barn until he feels that they are ready, etc. To me, it means that Anak Nakal must be showing Zito something in the mornings or else the trainer wouldn’t even attempt to win the Belmont Stakes with this horse.

Cool Coal Man would seem to be the better option for Zito, but, then again, Zito might be thinking that Cool Coal Man can’t get the distance while there is no doubt that Anak Nakal can.

Getting the distance is one thing. Running down monsters like Big Brown and Casino Drive is another.

But I repeat - - this is Nick Zito we’re talking about. He knows that Belmont dirt strip about as well as anybody in thoroughbred racing. And besides, he shocked the world once before in 2004. There’s precedence here.

So if anybody can pull off the shocker its Nick Zito. Just keep that in mind on June 7th when the gates open for the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

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