posted May 30, 2008 at 18:19 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Things got even more interesting for the June 7th Belmont Stakes when Casino Drive’s connections announced that Edgar Prado had taken the mount on the son of Mineshaft. Edgar Prado is easily one of the best jockeys in the world.

He’s also the one jockey in these Belmont Stakes who will be fighting to beat Big Brown because of a personal issue. Prado was called out by Big Brown’s trainer, Richard Dutrow, shortly after the Preakness Stakes for what Dutrow felt was excessive riding. Dutrow thought that Prado was intentionally trying to box Big Brown against the rail during the Preakness.

Prado didn’t respond as vehemently to Dutrow’s accusation as another jockey might, but I’m positive that Dutrow’s words caused Prado to feel some anger. After all, it’s not like Prado hadn’t rode a lot of Dutrow’s horses into the winner’s circle.

Well, Prado is now in position to gain a measure of revenge against Dutrow and Big Brown. Not only will Edgar Prado get a mount in the Belmont Stakes, but he will get a mount on the one horse that Big Brown’s connections, although they say otherwise, are deathly afraid of.

Casino Drive is bred to run horses like Big Brown into the ground. He appears to be just as fast as the Belmont Stakes morning line favorite and his grittiness is unquestioned. Casino Drive has won both of his lifetime races in stellar fashion. The fact that he absolutely blitzed the Peter Pan field in his first race in the United States makes me believe that he won’t have any issue negotiating the 1 ½ mile distance of the Belmont Stakes.

With all of that in his corner, Casino Drive picked up another golden ticket in Edgar Prado. Prado isn’t just one of the best jockeys in the world, he might be the best jockey equipped to take out a horse like Big Brown in the Belmont.

Why? Because Prado has done it before. In the 2004 Belmont Stakes, Edgar Prado took the mount on the Nick Zito trained Birdstone. Smarty Jones, the brilliant winner of both the 2004 Kentucky Derby and 2004 Preakness Stakes, on paper faced absolutely nobody in the 2004 Belmont. There wasn’t a horse close to Casino Drive in the race to challenge Smarty Jones.

At least it appeared that way. But Prado timed Birdstone’s late charge perfectly. That ended the hopes and dreams of Smarty Jones’s connections. Birdstone won the race and Prado racked up his second Belmont Stakes victory.

Prado was also impressive in winning his first Belmont Stakes in 2002. In that year War Emblem had won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. War Emblem stumbled badly out of the gate in the 2002 Belmont Stakes. His chances ended right there.

But the second choice in the wagering, the Bobby Frankel trained Medaglia D’Oro, looked like an easy winner until Edgar Prado got Sarava moving, after another brilliantly timed ride, in the stretch.

Prado got Sarava up at the wire. What were Sarava’s odds in the 2002 Belmont? Oh, around 70 to 1. What were the odds on Birdstone in the 2004 Belmont Stakes? About 36 to 1.

In both instances Edgar Prado brought home a tremendous long-shot against a seemingly invincible foe in the Belmont Stakes.

Casino Drive won’t be a huge long-shot in the 2008 Belmont Stakes. Doesn’t that sort of make Edgar Prado even more dangerous this timearound?

I think so. That’s how good Casino Drive is. Now, the horse has Edgar Prado, a proven giant killer in the Belmont Stakes, ready to take him wherever he needs to go to win.

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