posted June 5, 2008 at 19:43 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

I had to sit down for a moment and think really hard about how things have changed in just the last 24 hours when it comes to the June 7th Belmont Stakes. The Japanese connections of Casino Drive decided to not run that one’s rabbit, Spark Candle, a son of A.P. Indy, in the 2008 Belmont.

I already had decided that they had done so because of their belief that Casino Drive doesn’t need a rabbit in order to battle a horse like Big Brown for supremacy in the last leg of the Triple Crown. Casino Drive is good enough on his own to beat Big Brown. Also, Big Brown’s hoof issue may have given the Japanese more confidence in this race.

But I’m not sure if their confidence is misguided. After all, Big Brown is without doubt now the number one option in the Belmont Stakes to take the lead early and roll to a decisive victory. All the big horse will have to do now is keep his focus throughout the entire race and then pour it on at the top of the stretch.

There’s not another horse in the race, with the exception of Casino Drive, who has shown any desire to run on the lead. That could spell doom for Casino Drive who, no doubt, will want to track Big Brown while Big Brown stretches his legs on the Belmont Stakes betting backstretch.

That will be a problem for Edgar Prado. If he tackles Big Brown early, which looks like the plan after the scratch of Spark Candle, then who knows how Big Brown will respond? What if Big Brown takes to the challenge and goes faster? Let’s say Big Brown dances away to a 45 and change half mile?

No matter how good Big Brown is there’s no way that either he or Casino Drive would win a mile and a half race going 45 and change for the first half mile. Yes, it’s more likely that Casino Drive and Big Brown will just play cat and mouse with each other on the backstretch, but then another issue opens up for Casino Drive.

Does Prado push the gas and decide to cause some separation between himself and Big Brown? That could also be the case. In that scenario Kent D. on Big Brown would have no choice but to go with Casino Drive. Big Brown is the type of horse that needs to be no less then two or three lengths behind the speed. Desormeaux will not have the luxury of deciding not to take on Casino Drive early. It just won’t work.

What do all of these pace scenarios mean? That a race that suddenly appeared like a match-race to me around 24 hours ago when I first heard that Spark Candle had been scratched is suddenly wide open.

Sometimes two horses that feel they are the main competition to each other run that way in the actual race - - think Silver Charm and Free House in the 1997 Belmont Stakes.

Freehouse only wanted to beat Silver Charm. Silver Charm only wanted to beat Free House. They both forgot about Tough Gold.

If that happens in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, then I could see a scenario where Casino Drive and Big Brown are so involved with each other, one of those double-digit long-shots comes in for the kill.

Hmm…I think I just made a case for almost every other horse in the 2008 Belmont Stakes field. For more Belmont Stakes information visit, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belmont_Stakes.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Belmont Stakes.