posted May 16, 2009 at 15:20 EST in Triple Crown Articles
The 134th Preakness Stakes - Can Mine That Bird Repeat?
by BetUS Staff
It is time to stop rubbing your eyes, scratching your head and pinching yourself. I know it is nearly impossible to fathom but the unthinkable did happen at this year’s 135th Kentucky Derby. Most spectators of the race probably thought they were dreaming or simply had one to many cocktails in them as the mud caked horse and rider wearing saddle cloth #8 crossed the wire under a melancholy sky at Churchill Downs. I don’t know about you but all I heard around me at the conclusion of the race was people yelling “Who the heck is #8?”
Indeed I had to swipe up my copy of the Daily Racing Form and tear it open to investigate the mystery winner. I had simply not given a second thought to the long shot that had finished 4th in the Sunland Derby in his last start before the “Run for the Roses”. Mine that Bird may be the second longest shot in Kentucky Derby history from a payout perspective ($103.20 for a $2 bet) but in my mind he is without a doubt the most unlikely Derby winner one could ever imagine. It is not a stretch to say that this underdog script would not have even been dreamt up at a movie studio out in Hollywood, CA.
I am sure that pages will be written from now until the end of time about the absolutely incredible series of events that led up to Mine That Bird’s Derby victory. In a field where a horse named Dunkirk was sold for 3.7 million dollars the eventual victor was a $9500 purchase. The little horse had been shipped by van right before the race 21 hours from New Mexico by trainer Bennie Woolley. The conditioner drove left footed the whole way because his right foot had been broken in a motorcycle accident. Most unforgettable will be the fan’s recollection of the lead Derby horses rounding the first turn. “Who is that last place colt at the bottom left corner of their set?” most thought. The eventual Derby Champion was so far back that he barely snuck into the viewing frame.
Even more amazing than the thirty lengths Mine That Bird closed from last place on a sloppy racecourse that traditionally favors speed, is the incredible leap in the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in the Derby. To put it in perspective for the casual fan, the BSF is a number to the left of the horse’s running line in the Daily Racing Form that categorizes how fast a certain horse ran on a certain track on a certain day.
A crash course on speed figures teaches that two horses on separate coasts at separate tracks might have run a mile race in the same time on the same day but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are equal in accomplishment. The horse on the east coast might be a closer who rallied on a strip that favors speed while the runner on the west coast might have been on the lead on a track where early speed has been holding. Both horses might have run their race in 1:36 but the horse on the east coast who faced more adversity actually ran a better race. The Daily Racing Form would denote this by giving the east coast horse a rating of 97 while the west coast horse might receive a 93.
Before the Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird had never earned a Beyer Speed Figure above an 81. On the biggest stage of his life the little horse that could put up a 105 BSF. In my decade and a half of playing the ponies I have seen an increase of this magnitude probably less that half a dozen times. So what attributed to this supernatural jump in performance? I have heard some cry foul play but let me assure you that every single individual associated with thoroughbred racing yearns to win the Kentucky Derby. With so many eyes watching, no person in their right mind would “juice” a horse for this event. Remember that all thoroughbreds give urine samples after each race to discourage such tactics.
Probably the biggest factor in Mine That Bird’s performance was the sloppy racetrack. When it comes to the slop, some horses love it while others loathe it. There is simply no telling which runners will truly take to mud until the gates open but it is obvious that Mine That Bird relished the off going.
Secondly much credit has to be given to jockey Calvin Borel. In a similar move up the rail that granted him his first Derby victory on Street Sense in 2007, this fearless rider squeezed a thousand pound animal through a few narrow openings that seemed physically impossible to negotiate. It is true you need a fast horse but you also need a rider who can manage a race and Borel’s unique blend of skill and athleticism sets him apart in the upper echelon of the jockey colony.
So can we expect a Preakness repeat for Mine That Bird? If you take into account that the Pimlico strip will be dry and fast on Preakness day and that Borel will be riding the super filly Rachel Alexandra in “Old Hilltop’s” premier event, my first instinct says no. Many times when I have examined the running lines for a race and found favorites who were victorious long shots in their last outing, the same result almost always occurs. That long shot seldom repeats.
It is also worthy to note that after such an explosive move in the Derby some of the starch might have been taken out of Mine That Bird. Wheeling back in two weeks at a mile and three sixteenths will not be the easiest of tasks to accomplish. Lastly, if you were unwilling to take 50-1 two weeks ago then why are you going to settle for 9-2 now? As a race enthusiast I am as compelled as the next person with this equine’s story but my honest opinion is that the deck will be stacked against him mightily on the third Saturday in May.
