posted May 2, 2008 at 17:29 in Triple Crown Articles

Casual horse bettors usually just start to pay attention to the Kentucky Derby online betting hopefuls a week or so out and sometimes they will over emphasize the importance of working on the Churchill Downs surface and that can be a problem.

The fact is that if a runner is not prepared well in the weeks and months before the Derby, he is not going to suddenly ‘come to life’ on the Churchill strip and turn things completely around.

It’s just not going to happen.

I remember I once did a TV show with Hall of Fame trainer Dick Mandella and at that time he used to ride jockey Fernando Toro on quite a few of his horses.

Toro had a reputation for being very good about communicating to trainers what a horse needs or exactly how a horse worked.

I asked Mandella if he relied on Toro’s expertise and he said something like this: Mandella: “ If I have to depend on what a rider, who is on a horse for about a minute and a half to tell me, and I’m around that horse for 24 hours a day, then I’m in the wrong business.”

In other words, trainers’ train, riders ride and horses will either handle a surface or not.

Cagey horse bettors should also consider what has transpired in the past with horses that have had works over the Churchill surface and how they fared.

According to the Courier-Journal just working 5 furlongs at Churchill, no matter what the time, has been a solid factor for winners.

A total of 16 Derby winners since 1985 posted a 5-furlong CD work or longer, but it has changed a bit in the last few years.

Since 2003, only Smarty Jones and Street Sense posted that kind of work.

Posting a bullet work at Churchill prior to the Derby has been an indication, but not the cure all for Kentucky Derby winners.

In the last 9 years, only 4 winners posted bullets.

Having 2 works at Churchill has also had mixed success for Derby heroes. Since 2000, only 3 Derby winners had the 2 local preps.

The most important thing horse bettors may look to and the wordage should maybe be look the other way, is how horses that had a sharp race at Churchill performed.

Interestingly, it has not been a major factor. Since 1987, only 5 Derby winners had posted a sharp race at Churchill, so there goes the theory about handling the tricky Churchill surface.

What astute horse bettors do in their approach to the Derby is to almost tune out the talking heads that are watching the local workouts.

And watching is said lightly. Unless you are on the horse that is the subject, you don’t really know how that horse is going. He may appear to be struggling or may appear to be gliding over a surface but unless you are the exercise rider or the jockey working the horse, you can’t just watch a work and think that you can fully evaluate it’s benefit.

The best horse bettors are careful of the hype, they do your homework and they stick with the horse they pick in their room.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.