posted May 27, 2009 at 15:40 EST in Triple Crown Articles
Beware of Longshots in the Belmont Stakes
While the Kentucky Derby is widely regarded as one of the toughest races for handicappers to solve, the Belmont Stakes is not far behind.
In fact, three of the top six highest priced winners in Belmont Stakes history occurred in this decade.
We have also seen a few short priced winners this decade. Point Given paid just $4.70 in 2001, Empire Maker returned $6.00 in 2003, and Afleet Alex won the third jewel of the Triple Crown and returned a paltry $4.20 to his backers in 2005.
As we enter the last running of the race this decade, let’s look back at several of the biggest recent upsets in Belmont Stakes history:
2008: Da’Tara ($79.00)
Everyone in New York last year was expecting to see a special delivery courtesy of Big Brown, but instead witnessed the fourth biggest upset in Belmont Stakes history with Da’Tara pulling off the shocker at 38/1.
Jockey Alan Garcia was able to get a fairly easy lead, racing uncontested down the backstretch and opened up in the stretch to win by 5 ¼ lengths.
Trainer Nick Zito was squashing Triple Crown dreams for the second time in five years. The hall of fame trainer also conditioned Birdstone, who ran down Smarty Jones in the stretch to win the 2004 Belmont Stakes.
Big Brown, the heavy favorite to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, found himself in deep waters around the far turn, and when jockey Kent Desormeaux knew the colt did not have his best, eased him in the stretch.
The colt finished last of nine as the short priced chalk.
Denis of Cork rallied to complete the exacta, which returned $659.00.
2004: Birdstone ($74.00)
In 2004, a small colt named Smarty Jones captured the attention of the nation after wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
More than 120,000 packed into Belmont Park to witness history as Smarty Jones was attempting to become the 12th Triple Crown winner.
However, a long-winded colt by the name of Birdstone spoiled Smarty Parties everywhere by running down Smarty Jones in the stretch, returning $74.00 to win.
As they entered the stretch, it appeared Smarty Jones was well on his way to glory. The colt, with jockey Stewart Elliott aboard, opened up a clear lead and inside the final furlong looked like a winner.
Birdstone, with jockey Edgar Prado aboard, had other plans. Prado came five wide around the far turn and finished strongly, getting to Smarty Jones inside the final 70 yards to win by one length.
The $2 exacta returned $139.00.
Smarty Jones was the shortest priced favorite (35 cents on the dollar) since Spectacular Bid failed in his Triple Crown bid in 1979 at 30 cents on the dollar.
2002: Sarava ($142.00)
The granddaddy of all Belmont Stakes upsets was in 2002 when Sarava derailed the Triple Crown aspirations of War Emblem.
War Emblem went off as the short priced favorite in his Triple Crown bid, which ended prematurely as the colt stumbled coming out of the gate, taking him out of his game, which is to be on the front.
Sarava, ridden by Edgar Prado, settled just off the early pace, angled to the inside on the far turn under patient handling, and then split rivals to challenge for the lead nearing the quarter pole.
The colt took over with a furlong remaining and safely held off runner up Medaglia d’Oro to prevail by a half-length.
The colt lit up the toteboard, returning $142.50, the biggest upset in Belmont Stakes history.
Medaglia d’Oro, who was sent off at 16/1, completed a $2 exacta, which paid $2,454.00.
Sunday Break rallied to complete the trifecta, which for $2 returned $25,209.00.
It is interesting to note that all three of these Belmont Stakes upset winners occurred in years where there was a Triple Crown up for grabs.
The betting public was fixated on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, and with the Triple Crown foiled, the toteboard lights up.
While there is no Triple Crown at stake this year, Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra (if she runs) certainly will garner plenty of attention at the betting windows, giving us a shot of landing another bomb in the Belmont.
