posted April 17, 2008 at 15:58 EST in Triple Crown Articles

For those with short fuses and memories, last year at Keeneland you could absolutely not win a horse racing wager on the front end no matter how slow the rider tried to temper down the pace and it may be the same deal this year, but the key for horse bettors is to take that information and use against the lines and odds to project how those quitters would fend when they leave the Polytrack.

Granted, one day does not make a season, but the opening day card at Keeneland was solid and a couple of Bill Mott’s trainees were adversely affected by the surface. In one event, the race came off the turf course.

Don’t be shocked if this excellent trainer puts Splendora in the stall and doesn’t bring her out until Churchill Downs opens.

Cut out to run, she cost nearly $400,000, and she has been a bad actress at the gate in her first 3 starts. In her Keeneland bow, this miss settled and was allowed to trail early, made a sweeping premature move despite going 5 wide, made the lead after three quarters, but understandably wilted when pressured down the lane and was eventually beaten by the third choice in the race.

This miss had never even tasted the synthetic surface after coming in from Florida. She is bred to run all day, already proved she likes the Churchill surface with the third there in the debut and if she shows up there the first week of the meet cagey bettors will be lining up at the queue with both hands.

The synthetic to conventional switch will be a hot bed subject this spring and novice and clever horse bettors together need to be paying strict attention to exactly how things play out.

Mott was again compromised in a stakes later in the day when the Grade 3 Transylvania was forced to be run on the main surface.

Nine were scheduled to go but a Fair Grounds invader was declared. That left Mott’s student Prussian alone on the lead on a track that he had never encountered in the afternoon.

The last time Prussian was seen, veteran horse bettors remember him being hurt by the yielding turf course at Monmouth Park in the BC Juvenile Turf when he took them as far as he could after a bad start but caved in like a cheap suit at crunch time.

On opening day he was fresh and on the muscle early setting moderate splits but when his rider asked for gas, the tank was completely on empty.

Out of a winning Group 1 placed dam, bettors have to give this guy the benefit of the doubt. It’s possible Mott figured he needed a race at any cost and watched in vain as the colt was inhaled in the lane to run out of the money.

The dilemma for horse bettors in this guy’s next start will be to forget about this Polytrack fiasco, or take it as a sign that he is just off form?

The recommendation at this point, depending on the company he will meet, will be to give him another chance as long as he is back on his natural surface.

Consider that the horse he beat taking a Grade 3 in his second start has validated this guy’s class by getting beat a nose in a $127K Woodbine stakes last fall.

Horseplayers have to pay attention to losers as well as winners and when runners have legit excuses like this pair, they rate extra consideration wherever they show up in the future.

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