posted November 21, 2007 at 15:44 in Triple Crown Articles
Horse Race Betting - Padding Your Bankroll
by Michael Dempsey
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
It's closing week at Churchill Downs, the final day of the meeting coming on Saturday. There is a great betting card on tap today and we'll invest $24 with our Late Pick 3 ticket. There is a big 12 race card coming on Turkey Day, and there figures to be plenty of horse betting opportunities on that card as well.
We hit our Pick 4 play on Saturday at Churchill Downs with a return of $145.40.
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
AQU Race 5 Md $45,000 (2:20 et)
#6 Hostile Takeover 5/1
#8 Virginian 2/1
#3 Frank's Friend 15/1
#1 Star Studded 7/2
Analysis: #6 Hostile Takeover was no match for the winner last out in runner up finish in the slop in race taken off the grass. The colt likely needed his race two back in his last turf start, his first go off an eight month layoff. Looks set and ready for a good effort here third off the bench. Has two sibs, both winners on turf including multiple stakes winner Honor in War ($1.1 million).
#8 Virginian is in for a tag for the firs time here for Matz barn. Last out made a mild late run to finish third at Del Park in a highly graded race won by Beech Cay, a next out Alw-1 winner on 10/17. Runner up Stepaside also won next out, graduating on 10/17 versus maiden special weight company at Belmont. Solid pedigree on this guy, by Dynaformer out of the stakes winner Tres Coronas ($242K), a four time winner on grass.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,3,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,3,6,8,10,11
Churchill Downs Late Pick 3
Starting in Race 8: $1: 2,3,4 / 3,4 / 3,7,11,12 = $24
CD Race 8 Clm $50,000 (4:07 et)
#2 Greeley's Angel, #3 Please Include Me, #4 Essence of Gold
#2 Greeley's Angel came up a dead rail with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at Keeneland over the poly, beaten just a half length for the top spot. Earned a career top speed fig in the effort and will be making his first start on dirt since April at Gulfstream. Decent value if we see close to the 10/1 ML.
#3 Please Include Me came up just a nose shy of beating $35K non winners of two in a game effort. Was claimed out of the race by Smithwick barn that is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with horses first off the claim. Looks sharp enough for the class hike here into open company.
CD Race 9 OClm $80,000N$Y (4:38 et)
#3 Catman Running, #4 Jazz Quest
#3 Catman Running figures to move forward here in his second start off a six month layoff for Reed barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff. Came with a four wide big turning for home and flattened out in the stretch. Colt is a stakes winner on poly, taking the Battaglia in March, which was his third win in a row. Colt a bit on the light side as far as pedigree for the grass but does have one sib that is a two time winner on grass. Plenty of early speed signed up to go here and this guy should make his presence felt late and we should catch a fair price.
#4 Jazz Quest bobbled while breaking sluggishly, tracked the early pace while wide and came up short in the stretch in fourth place finish last out in the Bryan Station at Keeneland going a mile. The winner of the race was Inca King, who came back to win the $166K Commonwealth Turf in his next outing on 11/11. Amoss colt is a stakes winner and graded stakes placed on turf. Should get a good tracking trip from just off what likely will be a sharp early pace.
CD Race 10 Md $30,000 (5:08 et)
#12 Stella Stella, #7 Pistols N Pearls, #3 Appellate, #11 She's as Mistake
#12 Stella Stella gets the call here in her debut, catching a weak looking group and among the fillies in here with starts, none have even come close to running a number within a zip code of par for this class. $7K Keeneland purchase is by first crop sire Sunday Break out of a Saint Ballado mare who has dropped one other foal to race, 2 for 33 Arabian Star. Foley barn is 15% winners with first time starters.
#7 Pistols N Pearls is a $12K buy making her debut for Pitts barn that is 9% winners with firsters. By Posse (8% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed mare who has dropped seven foals to race, four winners, top earner Mississippi Queen (139K).
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R1: #1 Sobe Kani / #1a Texas Starlet 12/1
AQU R2: #3 Couth 8/1
AQU R3: #7 Introspect 10/1
AQU R5: #3 Frank's Friend 15/1
AQU R6: #8 Bomber D Back 10/1
AQU R6: #5 Judiths Garden 8/1
AQU R7: #8 Early Hatch 8/1
AQU R8: #5 Estimable 8/1
AQU R9: #11 Guessing Game 12/1
CD R1: #6 Dunscombe 10/1
CD R2: #4 Upon a Star 8/1
CD R2: #11 Finale's Gold 12/1
CD R3: #5 Keno Sabe Ben 20/1
CD R4: #5 Roll On Roll On 12/1
CD R5: #4 Play It Safe 8/1
CD R5: #9 Misplaced 15/1
CD R6: #12 Big Classy Gal 10/1
CD R6: #10 Z Country 12/1
CD R8: #2 Greeley's Angel 10/1
CD R8: #3 Please include Me 8/1
CD R10: #7 Pistols N Pearls 10/1
Track Bias Report Update For November
11/1/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/2/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-4 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/4/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/7/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 4 gate to wire
11/8/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/9/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
11/10/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
11/11/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/14/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/15/07: only two races run, rail deep and uneven
11/16/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/17/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/18/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire
11/1/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/2/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/3/07: track played fair, 4 gate to wire
11/4/07: track played fair, 0 gate to wire
11/5/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/8/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/9/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/10/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/11/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/12/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/15/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/16/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/17/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/18/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/1/07: edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/2/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/3/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/4/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/6/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/7/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/08/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/09/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire
11/10/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/11/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/14/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/15/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/16/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/17/07: edge to runners on or near lead, 2-4 paths, 3 gate to wire
11/18/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
11/2/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/3/07: edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/4/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 4 gate to wire
11/5/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
11/6/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/9/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/10/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/11/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 2 gate to wire
11/12/07: slight edge to runners on or near lead, 3 path in, 2 gate to wire
11/13/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/16/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/17/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
11/18/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 6 gate to wire
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
MikeD
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