posted December 12, 2007 at 18:51 in Triple Crown Articles
Horse Betting Action - Padding Your Bankroll
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
Our biggest challenge on Thursday may be Mother Nature. The weather is going to turn nasty in New York, with snow and possibly freezing rain hitting the region right around post time.
New York does a good job of speeding up post times when weather threatens, so hopefully the snow will hold off for a couple of hours and we'll get the entire card in.
Of course, the weathermen seem to be wrong more times than they are right, so we might not have anything to really worry about today.
We'll invest $24 in the late Pick 3 and our featured race of the day involves a couple of generous prices and the prospect of a nice payoff if we are right.
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
AQU Race 6 Md Sp Wt (1:00 et)
#10 Free and Brave 6/1
#8 Street talk 15/1
#6 Golden Spirits 8/1
#1 Fairy Godmother 4/1
Analysis: #10 Free and Brave stretches out to a route of ground for the first time after a pair of sprint tries. Was fifth in her debut and came back three months later to finish third last out, making a mild late rally over a inside speed favoring racing strip. Kimmel barn is 18% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Has some pedigree appeal to get two turns on the bottom side, mare is by Unbridled and her lone win came routing.
#8 Street Talk was not a threat in her debut, checking in ninth at 9/1 in a field of ten. She was a $175K buy and has a solid pedigree, by Street Cry out of a mare that has dropped seven winners including four stakes winners, top earner Buy the Sport ($357K).
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 8,10 / 1,6,8,10
TRI: 8,10 / 1,6,8,10 / 1,6,7,8,9,10
Aqueduct Late Pick 3
Starting in Race 7: $1: 4,5 / 1,2,4 / 1,3,4,5 = $24
AQU Race 7 Clm $30,000N2L (3:16 et)
#5 After Dark, #4 Elirose
#5 After Dark makes her first start off a two month break for Klesaris barn. Last out the filly came up just a nose shy of beating Alw-1 foes at Del Park going five furlongs on turf. Came up the inside with a good late run and was crowded by the pacesetter backing up. Barn strong with layoff types and hits at a 33% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
#4 Elirose came up empty in the stretch last out at Philly versus Alw-2L foes. Two back this gal headed for home with the lead only to come up a half length shy of the top spot. Has a habit of landing in the bottom half of the exacta in her career but her maiden score did come on the inner and she drops in for a tag for the first time here for Tony D. barn.
AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:44 et)
#2 My Cousin Matt / #2b Serious Fever, #1 Missile Motor / #1a Debussy, #4 Spooky Mulder
#2 My Cousin Matt came off a nine month layoff with a game win last out against Alw-3 optional claimers, a nose victory over The Student in what turned out to be a match race at Del Park. The gelding drops a condition here as he tries to win his third in a row since Tony D. took over the training duties. Is 2 for 7 on the inner and runs well on a wet track. Drilled a bullet on the inner here on 12/6. #1 Missile Motor ran huge last out in the mud on the main track here, beating $50K claimers by 8 3/4 lengths and earning a 111 Beyer in his first go for Contessa off the claim. Has won three in a row and 8 of 14 in his career. A ten point regression still puts him right in the mix here.
#4 Spooky Mulder is a 31 time winner in his career with six wins on the inner. Drops out of a optional claimer at Laurel where he set the early fractions and weakened to finish third. Fits here with his best and loves a wet track. Sounds like Lake is not going to ship in if the weather turns ugly so this old timer could be a late scratch.
AQU Race 9 Clm $12,500 (4:12 et)
#5 Starship Skywalker, #4 Gregson, #1 Mighty Gulch, #3 Golden Man
#5 Starship Skywalker pressed the early pace and weakened to finish sixth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers and was vanned off the track. Returns off a three month break with a class drop in for a $12.5K tag, not exactly a good sign. But encouraging to see Tony D. hang on to this guy and barn is excellent bringing runners back off breaks, hitting at a 26% clip with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The gelding beat Alw-2 foes off the bench in May and has a 8-4-4-0 record on wet tracks.
#4 Gregson ships in from Chuckie Town where last out he was sent off at 5/2 in a field of seven $10K claimers and checked in third after a lousy start. Gelding owns some early zip and note he is 3 for 4 on the inner, the last win coming on the surface here against Alw-2 foes back in '05. Low profile barn has a win and a second in six starters at the meeting and this guy figures to get overlooked on the tote.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 horse wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R2: #8 Song Boot 12/1
AQU R3: #1 Come On Chas / #1a Kings Challenge 12/1
AQU R5: #5 Docstar 12/1
AQU R6: #8 Street Talk 15/1
AQU R6: #6 Golden Spirits 8/1
AQU R7: #11 So Smashley 8/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
MikeD
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