posted March 14, 2007 at 16:24 EST in Tennis Free Picks

With the world of tennis atwitter following Federer’s early departure from the tournament, the Pacific Life Open Tournament continues on obliviously. The bottom half fourth round played out yesterday with Rafael Nadal defeating Fernando Verdasco 6-4, 6-4, Juan Ignacio Chela topping Michael Russell 6-4, 6-4, Andy Roddick 7-6(3) 6-3 and Ivan Ljubicic persevering against David Nalbandian 2-6, 6-4, 6-2.

With the quarterfinal round set for the bottom half of the draw, let us take a look at the tennis odds shaping up with BetUS.com.

Juan Ignacio Chela +450 Rafael Nadal -900
Prediction: The last time Chela and Nadal met was at the 2004 Cincinnati AMS, where Chela defeated Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(3) to even their head-to-heads at one a piece. At +450, Chela is a tempting bet for the tennis betting enthusiast for, should he bank on his underdog status, a bet on him would payout more than four times the original bet. If risk taking is your cup of tea, then betting on Chela would satisfy that thrill.

 

However if stats are an indication then Rafael Nadal is the sure bet. Although world No.2 Rafael Nadal has missed a portion of the tennis season already due to injuries and is vying for his first title this year, he remains a heavy favorite at -900. Known as the “Clay Court King,” owing to his 26-0 win/loss record on clay last year, on hard he went 25-10.

Why is this important? For the tennis betting enthusiast, surface is a key handicapping factor and when compared to Chela, who went 16-12 on clay and 10-11 on hard. Rafael Nadal clearly has the edge. While betting $900 to win $100 may seem outrageous at this stage of the tournament, as long as Nadal is in form, he is the best pick in this matchup.

Free Tennis Pick: Nadal in three sets

Ivan Ljubicic +175 Andy Roddick -225
Prediction: With Roger Federer, the defending champion, out of the tournament, the playing field has opened up, and perhaps for none more so than Andy Roddick. Should Andy Roddick have become the champion of the bottom half then, according to pre-tournament predictions, he would have faced Roger Federer as the expected top half champion in the finals. With the resounding defeat at the Australian Open semifinal to Roger Federer a not-so-distant memory, Roddick must be relieved.

At -225 Roddick is favored against Ivan Ljubicic. Considering he leads 6-3 in their head-to-heads, he seems like the sure bet.

However, at +175, Ivan Ljubicic has some value for the tennis bettor should he orchestrate the upset. Moreover, if their comparative stats on hard court surface are an indication - Andy Roddick(37-12) and Ivan Ljubicic (36-12) - then their odds appear rather even, with neither holding the advantage on this surface.

 

While this match could go the way of either player in the end, Roddick holds a slight edge. Leading in their head-to-heads, he has also been a more consistent player this year, compared to Ljubicic. With home court advantage, and the desire to bridge the gap that Federer has created in tennis - a measure that is hard to quantify in stats - Roddick should advance into the semifinal round.

Free Tennis Pick: Roddick in three sets

Indian Wells, CA, U.S.A.
March 9-18, 2007
$3,285,000 /96 Draw
Hard

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.

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