posted January 27, 2007 at 23:01 in Tennis Free Picks

Roger Federer -800 Fernando Gonzalez +425

When men’s tennis is the topic of conversation, Roger Federer is at its forefront. There seems to be no amount of hyperbole, in any scripted repertoire, to sufficiently describe Federer’s game. Playing in a league of his own, he has been called the magician and the maestro of tennis. His game is genius, brilliant, and dazzling. However, no match that Federer has played thus far has equaled that of his semifinal match against Andy Roddick.

Federer’s performance left everyone speechless and in shivers. Delivering a merciless 6-4, 6-0, 6-2 defeat, Federer seemed to mock Roddick’s claim that he was “closing the gap” in tennis. Federer was poetry in motion on the court - sublime and extraordinary, and at the end of the match he admitted that he was playing out of his mind! What really is “out of mind” is the belief that anyone can even think they can close the gap!

So, when a man in a league of his own plays out of his mind, off-the charts, how does one beat him? Perhaps a better question is, can anyone beat him? These are important questions to consider, particularly for the bettor risking on this head-to-head matchup.

So how does one bet on this line?

With the odds at -800 for Federer, he is by far the runaway favorite. However, it almost seems preposterous to have to bet $800 to win a $100 on the pre-tournament favorite to win this match. Nevertheless, even if there is no real value at -800; if his semifinal performance was any indication of what tonight’s result will be, it would seem that Federer’s win is almost a certainty, and betting on him is tantamount to a guarantee win.

 

On the other hand, would you be entirely out of your mind to bet on the underdog Gonzalez priced at +425? Betting a $100 would mean a whopping $425 win should he pull off the unthinkable! So, how unthinkable is this bet?

Gonzalez is ranked 9th in the world and coached by Larry Stefanki, one of the best tennis coaches in the history of the game. To reach the final round was no mean task for the Chilean, as he steamrolled past world No. 6 James Blake, No. 2 Rafael Nadal and No. 12, Tommy Haas, in straight sets!

Gonzalez has been playing some spectacular tennis that translates to some interesting stats for the Chilean wonder. On paper, Gonzalez leads the Australian Open with 85 aces. His serve, while not the most powerful, is vicious and its combination of speed, spin, and placement keeps his opponents on their toes. In the entire tournament so far, he has only nine double faults, and none in his last two matches. His percentage of first serve points won averages at 78%. His forehand is a dangerous weapon that accounts for a large portion of his impressive 307 winners so far at the Australian Open.

 

In comparison, Federer has only 48 aces in the entire tournament. His percentage of first serve points won hovers just under Gonzalez, at 76% and, interestingly enough, he also has less winners than Gonzalez, at 245.

If there is an Achilles' heel to be found in Gonzalez’s game, it’s in his backhand. He likes to use an off-speed slicer that appears to float back gently to his opponents, giving them enough time to load up and blast it where they please. And you can be sure that Federer will be more than pleased to do so. Moreover, Federer is unrivaled in his return game and, considering Gonzalez’s weak backhand, Federer looks like a good bet to defend his Australian Open title.

So, in the end, the question of whether or not Gonzalez can pull of the unthinkable demands an answer?

Prediction, While Gonzalez will play the best he ever has, on the biggest stage he has ever played on, by all indications, this looks to be another Federer victory. The pre-tournament favorite is simply in a league of his own, and defeating him seems to an exercise in futility.

However, for those of you who cannot help but root for the underdog, there is much value in the +425 price tag on Gonzalez. And, if Gonzalez pulls off the unthinkable, then you would have been thoughtless to miss the opportunity of putting at least a small bet on him! Think about it!

*** UPDATE: Roger Federer played another outstanding match, beating Gonzalez 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 without losing a set. In fact, he did not lose a set the entire tournament and now has ten Grand Slam titles to his 25-year-old name. The only other man to have played a full seven best-of-five-set matches without dropping a set was Björn Borg at the French Open, in 1980. Ironically, the French Open is the only title Federer has yet to walk off with. ***

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.