posted August 26, 2009 at 17:55 EST in Tennis Articles
US Open Tennis Futures - Wide Open men’s field?
by Nila Amerova
Flushing Meadows, New York – The US Open draw is not out yet but we already know who the real contenders for the US Open title are – don’t we? Five players, who also happen to be the top five players in the game and have seen into the final of a grand slam, each have a reasonable chance to win the 2009 US Open; and an additional sixth player sits on the fringe of this summation. All this rests on whether, one of them, Federer – the outright favourite and reigning five-time champion – has anything to say about it naturally.
World No.1 and five-time champion Roger Federer is bidding for his sixth consecutive US Open crown – a feat that has never been achieved (Bill Tilden won six in total, five consecutive titles from 1920-1925 and in 1929) and certainly not in the Open Era. Without a doubt, Federer – winner of the 2009 French Open and Wimbledon crowns and recent Cincinnati Masters champion – is held the favourite. This conviction is not only reflected in the tennis betting market, listing Federer at the shortest odds of the playing field, but amongst his peers and tennis experts alike.
BetUS US Open Futures market:
- Roger Federer +110
- Andrew Murray +250
- Rafael Nadal +450
- Novak Djokovic +800
- Andy Roddick +800
- Juan Martin Del Potro +800
Yet, interestingly enough Federer is not the outright favourite; that is, he is not firmly cast on the favourite (in the negatives) plane. No, Federer comes in at a conservative +110. For tennis bettors looking to back him, swayed by his convincing run since winning the Madrid Masters up to now, should find his price tag a steal!
The futures market is in tune to the respective rankings of each player, from No.1 to No.6 the market moves from shortest to longest amongst the six-pack. So next in line is World No.2 Andy Murray, who is seen as the second in line for the throne. He reached his first Grand Slam final at the US Open last year and many have long held his best chance to breakthrough on the big stage is at Flushing Meadows. This stems from the fact that he was a junior champion here and was further reinforced by reaching the final last year.
At +250 odds, Murray seems to be a good bargain but the problem with him (as far as I can see) is that he has flattered to deceive twice before in similar circumstances. He crumbled under the pressure of being the outright favourite at the Aussie Open this year, falling to Verdasco in the last 16. And at Wimbledon, at the time of asking in the semis, he succumbed to Roddick – when he was again touted the favourite to go to the finals and in some cases to win the coveted crown. At the French Open, he fell in the quarters (but reaching that stage was an achievement for the Scott as clay is his worst surface). Take Murray if you will but I (if I may) I remain unconvinced.
Rafael Nadal comes in as third in line, listed at +450 on the market. Nadal’s situation is unique as he enters the US Open with many question marks and grumpy opinions would point to those question marks as irrevocable evidence he should not be considered amongst the top contenders. Fair play.
But, if I may take you all back to the start of the season, when Rafael Nadal was coming off a two-month stretch of nursing knee tendinitis, which also happened to coincide with the end of the 2008 term, everybody had him all but written off for the Australian Open series. Chanting the same concerns, “his knees,” and “his hard court game”... the combination detrimental to his chances.
Nadal retired mid-match in the quarters of the Paris Masters. His knees too worn to allow him to continue and in effect ended his season a few weeks earlier than the end of term marked by the Tennis Masters Cup. Nadal returned in 2009 at an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi, where he lost to Andy Murray. He then went on to play in Doha and lost to Gael Monfils. Both results were held up as further proof he would not find success at the Aussie Open. Well, tale told. Nadal put paid on that notion as he went on to win the title in dramatic style, surviving two hard fought five-setters in the semis and final to lift the trophy. Read into this what you will; but I ask you, still want to overlook Nadal?
As to the trio of Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro, tipped equally at +800 in the market, there is fair value in each player.
Djokovic was once a finalist in New York and he has won a Grand Slam title. He can never be really left out of the equation despite struggling on the Grand Slam stage this season. You just never know when he might breakout. He certainly has the hard court game to do so.
Andy Roddick is a damn sight better a player than we have ever seen before. He is transformed and after Wimbledon, he has returned into the Grand Slam discussion. He has lovely memories in New York, winning his first Grand Slam title here in 2003. He is certainly looking more like a potential Grand Slam winner these days. Might it be his time finally?
Juan Martin Del Potro brings up the rear of “real” contenders. His closest to a grand slam final was a semi-final appearance at the 2009 French Open earlier this year. There is no doubt Del Potro is a serious threat in New York – his hard court prowess affirms that notion. He has moved from strength to strength this season and there is little to suggest he will not win a Grand Slam crown. In the future. The near future as in, in a fortnight? Not so sure. It would take a real sweet draw and some sensational tennis from the Argentine before I jump on that bandwagon.
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