posted September 2, 2009 at 13:16 EST in Tennis Articles
US Open Draw Analysis - Nadal ready to win the US Open
by Nila Amerova
New York, USA – So I have given away the angle of this piece in the title. Doesn’t make the narrative less true. Nadal is ready to win the US Open title and methinks he will in spite of the favouritism shown towards Roger Federer and Andy Murray in virtually all sportsbooks.
I realize a lot has happened to Nadal since the Australian Open final and his charmed start to the 2009 season that saw him pick up five titles before the French Open, none of it was good. Meanwhile, his opponent in said final, one Roger Federer whose tears during the trophy ceremony left an indelible print on Rod Laver Arena has since then had a lot happen to him too, almost all of it good. That is if we are to gloss over the rest of the early hard court swing and his shaky psyche during that time and start taking his measure from the clay court swing and onwards.
What an exclamation point it would be on what started out as a storybook year for Nadal if he were to capture the coveted US Open title. What an exclamation point on a dream rivalry in the sport if Federer and Nadal were to split the Grand Slam titles on the season and both complete the career Grand Slam in the same year. I so love a good story. Don’t you?
Nadal, however, would have one up on Federer because as the reigning Olympic Tennis champion should he win the US Open he will have completed the ‘Career Golden Slam’ – winning all four Grand Slams and the Olympic gold at any point in time in a player’s career. The only man to accomplish the feat is Andre Agassi – Wimbledon 92, US Open 94, Aussie Open 95, Olympics 96 and French Open 99. (A side note: the term ‘Golden Slam’ was coined when Steffi Graf won all four Grand Slams and the Olympic Gold medal in the same calendar year –something that has not been accomplished by a man or woman since she did in it 1988).
But I digress. Going back to Nadal and his odds to win the US Open, the only real smudge on Nadal’s season is his shocking upset at the French Open in the Round of 16 to icky-Soderling (I really should stop calling him that. Enough is enough.) Knowing as we now do that he was suffering from knee tendinitis at the time, dismissing his chances because injury caused him to yield ground does not seem right.
His bum knees were in such a state they forced him to withdraw from the subsequent London Queen’s Club and Wimbledon tourney’s where he was the defending champion and sidelined him for just over two months. His ranking dropped as a result. Doesn’t seem fair to hold that against him, no?
If you are an avid tennis follower you will appreciate how hard a decision it was to make for Nadal. You will also appreciate there is nobody more eager to lace up, more inclined to tot up his tally of trophies and more fit for the challenge to claw his way back up the ladder than Nadal.
Fortunately, he returned to action in time to get two US Open warm up events under his belt. And he didn’t do badly at all – a quarterfinal appearance at the Montreal Masters and a semi-final appearance at Cincinnati Masters. Those two results have me convinced Nadal will be in fine fettle for the US Open.
So on to his section of the draw. Nadal is the third seed and falls into the third quarter of the draw at the US Open, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga flanking the opposite end of the quarter. Threats are evenly littered through both halves of this quarter and both players will have some work to do to get to the quarters. However, Nadal in my opinion, is better equipped to deal with all manner of challenges than Tsonga is so he has a better chance of moving into the quarters. Tsonga may or may not be there. I am on the fence with him. (Can of worms, don’t ask.)
Nadal opens against Richard Gasquet who returns to the ATP Tour after serving a suspension for cocaine abuse enforced since the Miami Masters this season. Gasquet is obviously rusty and he has had very little match preparation for the US Open – recently lost to Dusan Vemic (who? That is right!) in a challenger event. If he lost to Vemic (I say who?again) he stands no chance against Nadal.
So barring anything freaky happening Nadal should move to the third round with little difficulty. In the R32, he could come up against No.32 Nicolas Almagro. Almagro is beatable. Nadal has done it thrice already while Almagro is a big fat ZERO against his more famous compatriot.
Things could get tricky for Nadal if he runs into another compatriot David Ferrer in the last 16. Ferrer is one of few Spaniards who is not intimidated by Nadal despite trailing 3-8 lifetime to him because on hard courts he has had Nadal’s measure. They are level 2-2 lifetime on hard courts. Should Ferrer meet Nadal in the last 16 it should be a thrilling battle. Should Ferrer fall early, the remaining potential last 16 opponents such as Jose Acasuso, Alberto Martin... even Jeremy Chardy, who he has never played against, he could beat with his eyes closed.
In the quarters, most pundits have Tsonga waiting for Nadal. Things could get interesting if that were the case but since losing to Tsonga in the semis at the 2008 Aussie Open, Nadal has not lost to the big man winning both their subsequent matches, which were on hard come to that.
I am not convinced Tsonga will be there at all though. Tsonga’ section of the draw contains seeded threats in Tomas Berdych and Fernando Gonzalez – both players are hugely talented and have a game big enough to cause him trouble. Gonzalez and Berdych are slated (potentially) to collide in the third round after which the winner would (possibly) go on to meet Tsonga in the last 16. Tsonga has never played either so they would each serve an exciting encounter. If Gonzalez reaches the last 16 (more likely than not if you ask me), his chances of emerging from this scenario to the quarters would be really good.
Quarterfinal Predictions: Nadal over Gonzalez in four
Semi-final Predictions: Nadal over Del Potro in four
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