Simon and Federer Battle for a Spot in the Semis

Shanghai, China – The destiny of the Red Group at the Tennis Masters Cup comes down to simple mathematics. If Murray beats Federer and Simon beats alternate, Radek Stepanek tomorrow, four-time champion Federer is out and Simon is in; if Federer wins and Simon loses, then Federer marches into the semis; but if Federer wins and Simon wins, then the 1-0 head-to-head edge Simon has over Federer (he beat Federer in the first fixture) would give the Frenchman the nod and Federer’s run would be over. Such are the intricacies of these round robin events and sports betting.

The fate of Federer’s bid lies in Murray’s hands. Knowing that Murray is a player in pursuit of the consummate performance does not bode well for Federer but it might for Simon. For if Murray can take care of Federer, all Simon would need to do is win his match over Stepanek to join fellow debutant Murray in the circuit finale semis. Simple enough!

So to position himself advantageously in the play-off for the Master Cup semis Simon has to win. Can Simon take advantage of the inner workings of the Pythagoras dilemma plaguing the Red Group and seize this unique opportunity?

Tennis Betting Line: Gilles Simon -250 Radek Stepanek +185

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time Friday November 13, 2008

Head-to-Head Analysis: Radek Stepanek leads the series 1-0 after he beat Gilles Simon in the opening round of the 2008 Roland Garros.

Tennis Betting Analysis:

Simon (-250) Simon takes a 1-1 mark in Shanghai against Stepanek and a chance to seize a spot in the semis. Stepanek, by virtue of playing one match less than the rest of the Red Group members, has no chance of advancing.

Stepanek (+185) flew in from his Asian vacation to take the alternate position after Roddick was forced to retire from the tournament with an ankle sprain. Stepanek’s arrival was so last minute he had to borrow gear from the other players to compete against Federer yesterday – he borrowed socks from Murray and racquets from Djokovic apparently.

Tennis Betting Verdict: In spite of the circumstances of Stepanek’s entry and his limited prospects in Shanghai, he did give Federer a good run for his money. I expect no less from him tomorrow against Gilles Simon. Nevertheless, the incentive to win lies in Simon’s camp. He has a lot at stake in this match and if he rises to the occasion, he should deliver on his favourite odds.

Tennis Free Picks: Simon in straight sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room