posted July 4, 2008 at 12:08 in MLB Free Picks

The Cincinnati Reds, (39-47, 33-52 RL) got back on track for the BetUS MLB online sports wagering community on Thursday night, beating the Washington Nationals, (34-52, 46-40 RL) 5-3 to earn their fourth victory in their last six games.

Tonight, the Reds will try to hand the lowly Nats their third consecutive loss by handing the ball to veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo, (5-7, 6.19 ERA) who is looking for consecutive wins in what has been a disappointing and inconsistent 2008 for him.

After going 0-3 in his fve previous starts, Arroyo limited the Cleveland Indians to one run on five hit in six innings of the Reds’ 9-5 road win on Sunday.

"I threw a lot more bad pitches (Sunday) than I did in Toronto," Arroyo said. "I hung a lot of breaking balls. I got away with a lot. They were popping them up. It shows how strange this game is sometimes."

Arroyo will square off against Nationals right-hander Jason Bergmann (1-5, 4.26) who has struggled mightily since picking up his last victory way back on May 15.

Bergmann has gone 0-4 in eight starts since beating the New York Mets on May 15, but has posted a solid 2.98 ERA during the span and getting almost no run support from his teammates when he takes the mound.

Bergmann’s last outing typified the Nationals’ troubles as he limited the Baltimore Orioles to one run on six hits in seven innings but failed to get a decision in Washington’s 3-2 12-innings win on Sunday.

"I struggled a little bit with my command," Bergmann told the Nationals' official Web site. "I was able to come back a little bit and throw some strikes when I needed to."

This will be Bergmann's first career start versus the Reds.

Here is a look at tonight’s key online sports wagering trends followed by my analysis and MLB online betting Free Picks.

The Nationals are 2-5 in Bergmann’s last seven road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Nationals are 7-19 in Bergmann’s last 26 starts as an underdog.

The Reds are 8-2 in Arroyo’s last ten starts as a home favorite.

The Reds are 7-2 in Arroyo’s last nine starts as a favorite.

The Over is 6-0 in Bergmann’s last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Over is 7-0 in Arroyo’s last seven starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.

The Nationals are 6-0 in the last six meetings.

The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.

Analysis: The Nationals should probably use their bats to start a barbeque on for today’s Fourth of July holiday since they don’t use them for much else. Take the Reds and Arroyo to win this contest at home while keeping the Total Under the 9½-run Total.

MLB Free Picks: Reds 4 Nationals 2

01:15 PM EST MLB Odds

Washington Nationals

Jason Bergmann - R +1½ -155

Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo - R -1½ +135

Over 9½ EV

Under 9½ -120

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