posted November 3, 2009 at 14:00 EST in Soccer Betting Trends
Champions League Betting Group C: AC Milan vs. Real Madrid
by Nila Amerova
AC Milan are preparing to host Real Madrid at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza full of confidence and with everything to hope for after upsetting the Spanish outfit in stunning fashion at Santiago Bernebau on Matchday 3. Real Madrid, meanwhile, will be looking to put the 3:2 defeat behind them with a redeeming performance in Milan at the expense of the Rossoneri in the return tie.
AC Milan pk -105 +165 3 O +110 U -130 1 O -140 U +120 Draw +230
Real Madrid pk -115 +155 3 O +110 U -130 1 O -140 U +120 Draw +230
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza - Milan – Italy
Match Time: 02:45 PM Eastern Time Tuesday November 3, 2009
AC Milan 165: After the stunner at Bernebau, AC Milan leapfrogged to top spot in Group C, level on points with Real Madrid at six points but with a better goal difference.
AC Milan started their Champions League campaign with a 2:1 victory over Olympique Marseille. They suffered a setback against FC Zurich with a 1:0 loss to the visiting Swiss and coach Leonardo’s tactics were called into question. Domestic woes didn’t help his cause either.
However, a watershed moment came with a 2:1 win over Roma, three days prior to their commitments in Europe. That they underscored with 90 scintillating minutes against Real Madrid on matchday 3 to gain a new lease on life in the game. AC Milan went on to win Italie Serie A fixtures against Chievo, Napoli and Parma. They boast a five-match winning streak in all competitions and are determined to extend that run at the expense of Real Madrid.
Real Madrid +155: Real Madrid lost ground on matchday 3 and they will be looking to restore the balance in Group C. The Spanish outfit boasts some of the best talent money can buy but in spite of the 300 million in Euro’s sitting on the bench, results are not proportionate to that investment. After the disheartening loss at Bernebau, Real Madrid drew scoreless against SP Gijon, lost to Alcorcon in Spanish Cup action a staggering 4:0 before bouncing bat with a 2:0 win over Getafe. Against lesser outfits Real Madrid have managed to impress but once they come up against heavyweights their flaws become apparent.
Soccer Betting Verdict: Bookies serve up a rather tight betting line on this matchup, tipping Real Madrid marginally short at +155 to AC Milan at +165. The implication is that the draw is a real possibility. Popular opinion believes both sides will not want to risk much in this match and a point on the draw would be a step in the right direction for the tandem taking the top two spots in Group C.
The problem with this theory is that it puts all the weight of their respective campaigns on the remaining two clashes in Group C. Real Madrid saw how quickly things could change for them in Europe on matchday 3. To gamble now, and rely on positive outcomes against Zurich and Marseille, seems rather risky for a side that was just shaken up. Because Real Madrid has more to lose in this match, they should have more incentive to win. It makes them the value play to win outright.
