posted June 24, 2008 at 19:14 in Soccer Articles

Let us face it, when UEFA Euro Cup betting started earlier this month, of the sixteen nations pitted against one another, few online sports betting fanatics had Germany or Turkey pencilled in the final four in their brackets. Well maybe Germany featured in some, but surely, Turkey was a long shot, the barest glimmer in nary a soccer-betting pick! However, here we are in the semi-final round of UEFA Euro Cup soccer betting and the soccer gambling markets feature odds on this unlikely of matchups. So how will this first of the two semi-finals for Europe’s most prestigious championship cup play out? Here is my take on this exciting UEFA Euro Cup semi-final duel between Germany and Turkey.

UEFA EURO CUP SOCCER ODDS:

Germany -1 -140 -250 Over 2½ EV Over 1½ -165 Under 1½ +135

Turkey +1 +120 +650 Under 2½ -120 Under ½ EV Over ½ -130

Draw +320

Analysis: It should come as no surprise in this pairing that Germany comes away with the favourite odds on the money line. Is it fair to Turkey who has been repeatedly underestimated not only by the opposition but also by the odds makers? Perhaps not! But the reality of the matter is that in terms of skill, technique and calibre Germany is the better squad. However, Turkey holds the edge in an immeasurable factor and that is heart and passion. No team in this championship has accomplished what Turkey has; that is, to win a match in the most miraculous of styles. I mean goals in the dying seconds of a match?? Goals in stoppage time??? Seriously, call it divine intervention, a “never give up” attitude, or whatever you will.... their run has been simply sensational – a real Cinderella story.

Soccer Betting Prediction: This match will be more than just a Euro Cup semi-final encounter. Over 2.5 million Turks live in Germany. The Turkish bench includes two players who were born in Germany and grew up in the Bundesliga – Hakan Balta and Altintop. But as familiar as they are with German soccer, they have a serious handicap going against them. Demirel, Asik, Tuncay and Turan are suspended from the semi-final. Cetin and Metin are injured. Practically, aside from Mehmet Aureli, Hakan Balta, Kazim Kazim, Altintop, coach Terim will field the reserve squad. Since they are a relatively unknown entity, it could play out in their favour or against them.

For Germany, their run through the Group stage saw them barely qualify for the knockout stage by scraping by Austria. In the quarterfinal though, they regained their confidence, blowing by Portugal. Ballack was key to their victory and will be key tomorrow as well. Germany enters with the burden of favourites and after seeing Turkey dismantle many other favourites they will take them seriously. They will try to take the initiative from the start and score as quickly as possible. Even better would be if they could score more than once at the onset, build a cushion, thereby quashing Turkish hope. As long as Turkey has the hope, you have to believe they are capable of anything.

Soccer Free Pick: No one, not even the odds makers, see any other outcome than a Germany win. Turkey has done its nation proud by reaching the semi-final but they are now discounted. A decimated squad has earned them odds at +650 on the money line – a long shot chance of going one better.

Of course prudence dictates Germany is the better play; but one cannot help but succumbing to the lure of Turkish enthusiasm on the pitch. They know they are discounted. They know no one believes in them. They will play free of pressure and expectation. For that alone, and their performance in the championships, their underdog odds warrant a small wager. If you are not a convert – a fan of Turkey –then take the spread odds at Over 1-5 goals.

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room