2008 Election Political Betting – Odds on the Big Guys

BetUS online sports betting fans who also follow politics will be interested in what BetUS has to offer when it comes to political betting, especially as we are now coming down the home stretch.

Here now the odds on the electoral vote (EV) spread, as they appear at BetUS Sportsbook:

Obama - 159.5 ECV -115

McCain +159.5 ECV -115

I have a feeling it's going to be closer than this. Yeah, I expect a "Bradley Factor" (if you don't know what that is, look it up). But it's not as if I expect it to be MUCH closer. Earlier in the campaign I thought the electoral math could work out in McCain's favor. But I underestimated a couple of things - the "kid gloves" treatment Obama was going to continue getting from the media, and the porr campaign McCain and his people have run. When the Republican candidate failed to differentiate himself from Obama when it came to corporate welfare via the bailout, he missed a golden opportunity. And the Sarah Palin selection, viewed by some as a necessary gamble, may have been, but its long-run effect, I think, is negative.

Overall, on this proposition of electoral college votes for the Democrats:

269 or Less +450

270 ~ 289 inclusive +1200

290 ~ 309 inclusive +750

310 ~ 329 inclusive +600

330 ~ 349 inclusive +300

350 ~ 369 inclusive +300

370 or More +125

...I would have to go with 310-329, which would bring 6/1 odds at BetUS.

Okay, enough about them. Now let's get around to me.

You probably haven't heard a lot about it (except in the sig file at the end here) but I am a presidential candidate myself, of the third party variety - the nominee of the Boston Tea Party, with access on three state ballots (Florida, Tennessee, Colorado) as well as write-in ceritifcation in a number of states.

It's time to handicap ME.

Out there in "third party land" (and there is a web culture devoted to it), I have heard figures spanning the whole layout, from 2000 all the way up to 20,000. I came into this truly not knowing what to expect from the perspective of vote total, and frankly, that was not as important as being able to sprad a message and help launch a party in electoral politics.

In 2004 I ran in Utah and got almost 100 votes doing very little in the way of campaigning. This time I have gotten a lot more media exposure, and have more ballot access. In addition, I've receivd some support from Ron Paul followers; in an independent poll of 14 candidates that is showing on a number of websites (including Independent Political Report), I am second to Ralph Nader with over 1800 votes and 20% of the field. So I'm not doing too badly.

Here we go:

Odds - Total Votes for Charles Jay

OVER 3750.5 -115

UNDER 3750.5 -115

Good luck to me.

(Charles Jay is the 2008 presidential nominee of both the Boston Tea Party and the Personal Choice Party. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)