posted February 13, 2009 at 14:20 EST in Other Free Picks
Oscars Best Picture - Could The Reader Shock the World
by Charles Jay
Entertainment Betting
THE OSCARS: HANDICAPPING BEST PICTURE
The Best Picture Oscar is, in the minds of many, something that is virtually "in the bag" for Slumdog Millionaire simply because the story OF the movie and the story BEHIND the movie are so captivating. I'm not so sure; certainly Danny Boyle's film looks to be the leader at this time, but as one sportsbook manager once told me, "We only pay on final scores."
Let's take a look at the odds as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
To Win Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire -900
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +450
Milk +2000
Frost/Nixon +3000
The Reader +3000
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (-900 at BetUS) -- This is the obvious favorite and is the one that gathered more buzz than it had viewers at first, maintaining the momentum throughout the awards season and eventually reaching the $75 million mark. The movie has won best picture awards from the Golden Globes, the Satellite Film Awards, the National Board of Review, the Women's Film Journalists, and many others. It's an inspirational story about an orphan who wins on the Indian version of "Who Wants To Be a Millionaire" and sets out to win back the heart of the girl he loved in his boyhood. Says the renowned film critic Roger Ebert, "It is one of those miraculous entertainments that achieves its immediate goals and keeps climbing toward a higher summit." Is it a shoo-in?
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (+450 at BetUS) -- This is seen by many people as more technical achievement than human drama. Whether it is a fair assessment or not, many see it as derivative of "Forrest Gump" in terms of the way it is told by director David Fincher. We've been through that before, as we pointed out that since it's based on a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, it can hardly be the case. There is no doubt that this film deserves respect as a contender, as any film with 13 Oscar nominations (the most of anyone this year) would.
MILK (+2000 at BetUS) -- The story of the political life of gay rights activist Harvey Milk, who became a city councilman in San Francisco, this film garnered seven nominations, including acting nods for Sean Penn and Josh Brolin. The New York Film Critics gave it the best picture nod, and Sean Penn has gathered up some hardware along the trail. It could be that the Best Actor for Penn winds up being this film's reward.
FROST/NIXON (+3000 at BetUS) -- This is essentially a play set to film. Some thinks this is a major cinematic achievement for Ron Howard, since it was basically two men on stage and it had to be expanded into something much more substantial in scope. Howard and Frank Langella got nominations, and they were expected, but if this was a strong contender for Best Picture one of the signs would be, say, a supporting actor nomination for Michael Sheen. That didn't happen. There is strength in the acting, and an historical perspective, naturally, but as far as this Oscar category is concerned, this movie is in no-man's land.
THE READER (+3000 at BetUS) -- Ah, this is the interesting proposition in this field. This film has a lot of things going for it. One of them is the performance of Kate Winslet, which won a supporting actress award at the Golden Globes and had the strength to garner an Oscar nod that nosed out her turn in "Revolutionary Road." Another thing that can't be forgotten in a year when Hollywood will almost certainly be posthumously honoring Heath Ledger with Best Supporting Actor after his death is the fact that two of the producers of "The Reader" were well-loved veteran directors Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella, Oscar-winners who both died this past year. This is the kind of thing the Academy could honor them for. Finally, this film was put out by Harvey Weinstein's company, and anyone who follows the Hollywood game realizes how successful Weinstein has been in getting his films and actors recognized with statues. the word is that he is campaigning very hard for this one, to the point of doing an underhanded thing or two. Gee Harvey, so it ain't so!
There is no doubt that "Slumdog Millionaire" is a very worthy favorite, and Danny Boyle is a front-runner to win Best Director. What bothered me a little, though, was that Dev Patel couldn't get himself an acting nomination. Maybe what one critic said is true - that in terms of the hype, the Slumdog may have peaked. My guess is that if there is any point in the ceremony where mouths would be agape, it will be when "The Reader" overcomes 30/1 BetUS odds to bring home the bacon.
Hey, don't we bet long shots at the track?
(Charles Jay strolls along the red carpet - at his home - and also contributes to the BetUS Locker Room)
